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Trump and Ukraine diplomacy efforts

MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:

So far in his second term, President Trump has sounded mostly in sync with Russia when it comes to the war with Ukraine. But very recently, Trump and his advisors have criticized Russia and sounded more engaged with the government in Kyiv. So what is U.S. policy now when it comes to Ukraine? To break this down, we are joined by NPR's Greg Myre here in Washington - hi, Greg...

GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Mary Louise.

KELLY: ...And our correspondent in Kyiv, Joanna Kakissis. Hey there, Joanna.

JOANNA KAKISSIS, BYLINE: Hey, Mary Louise.

KELLY: Joanna, you start. I want to talk about the relationship between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelenskyy. It has been contentious at points. They spoke by phone yesterday. What's the readout on that?

KAKISSIS: So according to Zelenskyy's office, it was a friendly phone call. It's the second positive conversation between these two recently. Of course, we remember that striking image of Trump and Zelenskyy sitting in an empty Vatican courtyard before Pope Francis' funeral. That was the first sign of a thaw in that frosty relationship. And based on what we can see and what we're hearing, they've moved on. Zelenskyy said in this latest conversation, he emphasized the need for a durable ceasefire that can be enforced, not like Russia's three-day self-declared ceasefire, which started yesterday. Ukraine's military says Russia has already violated its own ceasefire hundreds of times.

KELLY: OK, so that's the view from Ukraine. Greg, what about the view from Washington? What's President Trump's readout on this call?

MYRE: Yeah, Trump took to Truth Social and wrote, quote, "if the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions." So this is a clear message to Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin. Trump also repeated his desire for a 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine accepts this. Russia does not. So this clearly reflects the change in tone, but does it mean a change in U.S. policy? Andrew Weiss at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is skeptical. He doesn't think Trump has changed his mind.

ANDREW WEISS: There's no indication at this point that Donald Trump, even if he's frustrated by Vladimir Putin's slow walking, intends to put serious pressure on Russia.

KELLY: The reference there, of course, to Russian president Vladimir Putin - Joanna, jump back in here because I want to ask about another development. This is the minerals deal with Ukraine that the Trump administration has been pushing for a few months. There was pushback from Ukraine, but yesterday, Ukraine's parliament overwhelmingly approved this deal. What changed?

KAKISSIS: So the minerals agreement that's been ratified now is a much better deal for Ukraine. Zelenskyy rejected the first version because Ukraine would have given up its mineral wealth and gotten close to nothing in return. Now, members of Parliament agreed that the latest deal gives Ukraine much more leverage, though several still had issues. I spoke with lawmaker Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, and here are her concerns.

IVANNA KLYMPUSH-TSINTSADZE: It doesn't have any security guarantees, and then there is not even reference to the territorial integrity of Ukraine. And unfortunately, the government didn't want to come and give us the answers on the questions we had.

KAKISSIS: So now, she and many others in parliament signed off after some wording changes because they say, look, you know, Ukraine cannot lose the U.S. as a strategic partner, and this deal is a bond between the two countries.

KELLY: Greg Myre, any prospect that that bond Joanna just mentioned - that it may extend to additional military aid? The current funding is running out.

MYRE: Yeah, right now, it still looks like a hard no. Trump consistently opposes more military assistance for Ukraine, and he hasn't budged on that. The assistance that former President Biden supported and Congress approved last year is running out, as you noted, and will mostly or entirely end in the coming months. Europe is providing assistance, may step it up a bit, and Ukraine is making more of its own weapons, especially drones, which are proving very effective.

And look, a U.S. cutoff would be significant. Ukraine won't be able to replace the sheer quantity of weapons it was getting. Some of those weapons are only available from the U.S., like missiles for Patriot antiaircraft systems that shoot down incoming Russian missiles.

KAKISSIS: And yeah, Greg, that's a really important point. Patriots make a huge difference on the ground here in Ukraine. Ukrainians are very happy that the White House has approved the transfer of one Patriot system from Israel to Ukraine. And that's because Patriot air defense systems are - you know, they're the best way to intercept ballistic missiles at a time when Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities are increasing. And these attacks are something we see and hear and feel here in Kyiv all the time.

And look, you know, we're heading into the summer months, when fighting on the frontline intensifies. Ukrainians are desperate for some sense of normal life. You know, I read a report from Northeastern Ukraine about a couple of women who even tried to use Russia's self-declared ceasefire to try to plant some potatoes out in their fields yesterday, and they were wounded in a Russian attack because of the Russian violations of the ceasefire. And that just underscores, Ukrainians don't trust Russia to observe truces or peace of any kind, and they want the U.S. to help enforce that peace.

KELLY: That's such an image, these poor women out there just trying to plant their potatoes.

KAKISSIS: Yeah.

KELLY: Greg Myre, last question to you - it's the what if. What if this goes completely off the rails? - because there is potential for that. President Trump has threatened to just walk away from Ukraine if he can't get the ceasefire that he wants. What would that look like?

MYRE: So right now, it's a threat without details. We mentioned a possible end to U.S. military assistance. The U.S. could also end its diplomatic efforts. Now, if the U.S. does walk away or greatly reduces its role, this would seemingly play into the hands of Russia and Putin. There's a strong view that Putin is playing for time, that Russia is bigger and stronger than Ukraine and can outlast it, and Ukraine's Western support will dwindle over time. Putin may be interested in a ceasefire that meets his terms, like recognizing Russian control over parts of Ukrainian territory. But if he doesn't get what he wants, he may be perfectly willing to carry on the war, believing he will win a long war of attrition. In other words, Putin may think, heads, I win; tails, Ukraine loses.

KELLY: NPR's Greg Myre in Washington and Joanna Kakissis in Kyiv, thanks to you both.

MYRE: Sure thing, Mary Louise.

KAKISSIS: Oh, welcome.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Greg Myre is a national security correspondent with a focus on the intelligence community, a position that follows his many years as a foreign correspondent covering conflicts around the globe.
Joanna Kakissis
Joanna Kakissis is a foreign correspondent based in Kyiv, Ukraine, where she reports poignant stories of a conflict that has upended millions of lives, affected global energy and food supplies and pitted NATO against Russia.
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