Forecasters up chances of tropical system forming over Florida during rainy July 4 holiday
By Rick Mayer
July 1, 2025 at 12:33 PM EDT
The National Hurricane Center says a stalled front has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical storm by Tuesday. Even without development, “heavy rainfall is possible" in the Tampa area by the weekend.
The Tampa Bay area is expecting a soggy Fourth of July, with the National Weather Service forecasting an 80% chance of showers and storms on Thursday and Friday.
The wet weather is tied to a stalled frontal boundary near the southeast Atlantic or Gulf coasts that could spawn a weak low-pressure system that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for possible development.
ALSO READ: 2025 WUSF Hurricane Guide
Forecasters on Tuesday night slightly raised the chance of development into a tropical or subtropical storm to 40% over the next seven days as “the system drifts and moves little.”
No development is expected before Friday.
Even without tropical formation, “heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the Southeast U.S., particularly across the West Central Florida coast” on Friday throughout the weekend, the weather service said.
Forecasters said waves of heavy rainfall are likely with a possibility of strong winds and hail. The highest rain totals are likely from Tampa north to the Big Bend region.
The wet weather is tied to a stalled frontal boundary near the southeast Atlantic or Gulf coasts that could spawn a weak low-pressure system that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for possible development.
ALSO READ: 2025 WUSF Hurricane Guide
Forecasters on Tuesday night slightly raised the chance of development into a tropical or subtropical storm to 40% over the next seven days as “the system drifts and moves little.”
No development is expected before Friday.
Even without tropical formation, “heavy rainfall is possible across portions of the Southeast U.S., particularly across the West Central Florida coast” on Friday throughout the weekend, the weather service said.
Forecasters said waves of heavy rainfall are likely with a possibility of strong winds and hail. The highest rain totals are likely from Tampa north to the Big Bend region.