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Forecasters watching a disturbance over Florida ahead of an expected soggy Independence Day

National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center slightly raised the chances of a stalled front organizing into a tropical or subtropical storm to 30% over the next seven days.

The Tampa Bay area is still expecting a soggy Fourth of July, with the National Weather Service forecasting an 80% chance of showers and storms on Thursday and Friday.

The wet weather is tied to a stalled frontal boundary across the northern part of the state that could spawn a weak low-pressure system that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring for possible development.

ALSO READ: 2025 WUSF Hurricane Guide

Forecasters on Tuesday slightly raised the chance of development into a tropical or subtropical storm to 30% over the next seven days over the eastern Gulf or Florida.

No development is expected before Thursday.

Even without tropical formation, the system is expected to bring storms through the holiday weekend.

Until then, expect the current pattern to continue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. As a west coast sea breeze moves inland, those storms will become more numerous into the evening.

Rick Mayer
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