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A look at the prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine ahead of Trump-Putin meeting

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

For more on this prospective summit, we're joined by former ambassador John Herbst, and he's on the line with us. He served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine during the George W. Bush administration, and he's now at the Atlantic Council. Ambassador, good morning, and thank you for being on the program.

JOHN HERBST: My pleasure. Thank you.

FADEL: Now, President Trump announced this meeting Friday, the same day he'd set a deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire or face further sanctions. Were you surprised to see a summit announced rather than a follow-through on a promise to punish Russia?

HERBST: I have no problem with there being a summit, but for Russia to continue to blast the hell out of Ukrainian cities and to go after Ukrainian civilians after Trump had set that deadline without further sanctions, I think, is not a projection of strength, and it leads Putin to think that he can have his way at the summit in Alaska.

FADEL: Now, President Trump suggested a, quote, "swapping of territories" to achieve peace. Ukraine's President Zelenskyy responded to this saying Ukraine will not, quote, "give their land to the occupier" or "reward Russia for what it has perpetrated." What do you make of Trump suggesting this swap before talks even begin on Friday and after this deadline passed?

HERBST: Well, this is a problem. The only public discussion we've heard about the possible terms being discussed between the U.S. and Russia involve Ukrainian concessions, Ukrainian land that would, in some fashion, remain under Russian control. We've heard nothing about the things that Ukraine would need to make this peace durable, which is Trump's stated goal. So it's like they're front-ending the concessions Ukraine must make without any indication that Russia would make any concessions.

FADEL: In that...

HERBST: And that, again, is not a look of strength.

FADEL: In that same vein, it appears that Russian President Putin doesn't want Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, at the meeting, and it appears Zelenskyy was not invited. I mean, Europe and Ukraine say a ceasefire should be declared before any peace talks even take place. I mean, can a ceasefire be accomplished or a lasting peace if Ukraine's not at the table?

HERBST: That's a very good question. It is a serious tactical mistake that the U.S. position, again, we can best tell from the public revelations about the conversations, was that there should be a three way - you know, Zelenskyy, Putin and Trump - and the Russians said no, and the White House acquiesced. So this is an indication for Putin that he could push his agenda with some success. You know, this is not a dreadful mistake 'cause it could always be corrected, but it pushes actual peace, a durable peace, farther away because Putin thinks he can get his way.

FADEL: What leverage does President Trump have over President Putin right now?

HERBST: Well, Trump did a wonderful job, starting around the time of the strike on Iran, building leverage against Russia. That included first strengthening NATO's hand, getting the NATO nations to increase defense expenditures and tying it to the Russian threat. That included the deadline on a ceasefire, that included the announcement that the United States would be willing to sell advanced defensive and offensive weapons to NATO allies to pass on to Ukraine. So this was putting serious pressure on Putin. And even after Witkoff met, they had the tariffs on India, tying it to India's purchase of Russian hydrocarbons. That was all great. But then, suddenly, when push came to shove, we didn't see that strength as they decided to have the summit talking about the concessions that Russia could get from Ukraine. That's the problem.

FADEL: Former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, John Herbst. Thank you for your time, Ambassador.

HERBST: Thank you.

(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Leila Fadel
Leila Fadel is a national correspondent for NPR based in Los Angeles, covering issues of culture, diversity, and race.
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