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Florida is not seeing a post-Roe registration surge among women

crowd of people holding signs and chanting in protest
Octavio Jones
WUSF Public Media
Haile Raybuck, left, and her sister, Karlie Hardick, attend the "We Won't Go Back" rally in St. Petersburg, where several hundred people marched to protest the U.S. Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade.

Since Roe was overturned, Florida has seen just a 2 percent increase in women registering to vote. One data analyst says college women could sway those numbers.

The results of a Kansas referendum on abortion are still reverberating in political circles. A 16 percent jump in women voter registrations after Roe v Wade was overturned helped defeat a measure restricting abortions in that red state.

Swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania have seen an increase in female registration of 6 percent.

However, since Roe was overturned, Florida has seen just a 2 percent increase in women registering to vote.

Political data consultant Matthew Isbell said that may have more to do with Florida’s demographics than a lack of motivation around the abortion issue.

Isbell consults with mostly democratic campaigns on redistricting and voter trends. He said the lack of a Roe bump in female voter registration is because of the older voter population in Florida who are already registered.

"When people move into the Villages or down into the different Miami Beach condos or Boca Raton, they register almost instantly,” Isbell said. “You know they're instantly involved in the process. And, it's men and women."

Isbell says there is no gender gap when it comes to abortion. Many men are pro-choice and some women are anti-abortion.

However, Isbell does think there is still one group of female voters who could still register before the November elections, inspired by the overturning of Roe v Wade — college women.

"If we're talking about a pool of unregistered women who could then be galvanized by this, I think that exists exclusively in Florida in the student community, the community under 25,” Isbell said.

Isbell said we won't know if that registration surge is gonna happen until early to mid-October.

I started my journalism career delivering the Toledo Blade newspaper on my bike.