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What's driving President Trump's new confidence in Ukraine's war effort

ANDREW LIMBONG, HOST:

Since President Trump declared last week that Ukraine can win the war against Russia, diplomats in the U.S. and Europe have been wondering, what does this all mean? Is this a complete 180 from his previous stance, or is it the president washing his hands of the war entirely? NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez has the story.

FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: It was last week when President Trump dramatically declared on social media that he now believes that Ukraine can reclaim all its land from Russia, which he described as a paper tiger. From the Oval Office, he criticized Russia for fighting aimlessly for years, with little to show for it except a crumbling economy.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: Russia has spent millions and millions of dollars in bombs, missiles, ammunition and lives, their lives, and they've gained virtually no land.

ORDOÑEZ: But the reversal was not accompanied by any announcement of a change in U.S. policy. There was no new call for a peace agreement, no new sanctions or no new direct military support from the U.S.

RICHARD FONTAINE: Well, I think he's changed his analysis of the situation and his rhetoric about the situation but not his policy on the war and on Russia and Ukraine.

ORDOÑEZ: That's Richard Fontaine, who served in the George W. Bush White House and now runs the Center for a New American Security. What Trump did tell allies was that they could shoot down Russian aircraft that enters their airspace, that they can buy U.S. weapons and that they can stop buying Russian oil. Fontaine says, the subtext of all that was none of those things require the U.S. to be involved.

FONTAINE: I think he's removing himself from the personal diplomatic leadership role that he had assumed and was playing until just a few weeks ago, where he would singlehandedly end the war in Ukraine by bringing the parties together and getting a deal.

ORDOÑEZ: The White House dismisses the idea that the president has relinquished leadership. A senior administration official who was not authorized to speak publicly about the negotiations even pointed to statements by European leaders who praise Trump's leadership. But in order for pressure to be effective, the officials said Europe needs to do its part, and that means leaders can't call for an end to the war while simultaneously helping finance the war by purchasing Russian energy. While Europe has been scaling back, they haven't entirely eliminated purchases of the cheaper fuel.

ALINA POLYAKOVA: I think we've seen an evolution over time. The president, I think, came into office with one idea. I think he's learned about the complexities of the conflict. I think he has clearly understood that there's an aggressor, and that's Russia, and then there's a victim, and that's Ukraine.

ORDOÑEZ: Alina Polyakova is the president of the Center for European Policy Analysis. She says Trump is taking action and pointed specifically to Trump's support for NATO, including agreeing that member territories must be defended.

POLYAKOVA: Time and time again, I think there's a perception, and then there's facts. And I think the facts actually speak to quite consistent support for Ukraine.

ORDOÑEZ: Earlier this week, Trump met with prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu about ending another world conflict that he struggled with - the war in Gaza. Ivo Daalder, a former U.S. ambassador to NATO in the Obama administration, watched that meeting for any signs of what it could mean for Trump's commitment to ending the war in Ukraine.

IVO DAALDER: Is the United States finally going to use the leverage that it has?

ORDOÑEZ: He said after the meeting, where Trump announced a 20-point peace plan, that the president clearly appreciates it's going to be more difficult to address these deep-seated conflicts. But Daalder says Trump continues to declare peace before it's actually arrived. The war is not over. Daalder compared that announcement to others made in Alaska after Trump met Putin. Trump hailed progress and declared Putin would next meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. That meeting never happened.

DAALDER: And so what you have is big drama, just like you had in Alaska. But when it really comes down to the end, there's no hat there. There's no cattle. There's just a declaration of peace without any follow-through or any reality.

ORDOÑEZ: And he added, you can't announce peace. You have to make peace, Franco Ordoñez, NPR News. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Franco Ordoñez is a White House Correspondent for NPR's Washington Desk. Before he came to NPR in 2019, Ordoñez covered the White House for McClatchy. He has also written about diplomatic affairs, foreign policy and immigration, and has been a correspondent in Cuba, Colombia, Mexico and Haiti.
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