Hurricane Forecasting

Forecasters expect tropical cyclone activity could resemble seasons in 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023. El Nino plays a prominent role in each of the seasons.

La Niña officially emerged in September 2025 and lasted until April. Neutral conditions are present, but an El Niño is expected to emerge later in 2026.

Colorado State University is one of the most highly revered names in hurricane forecasting, and for Florida, that matters. Here’s why a landlocked university has become so influential for a state that sees more hurricane hits than any other.

Colorado State University’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook calls for below-normal activity across the Atlantic basin due to a likely transition into an El Niño.

Pre-season predictions on the number of hurricanes that will make landfall in Florida this year are certain to differ among the leading tropical storm forecasters, figures that get refined and reissued as the season unfolds. One thing that will now be a constant is the National Hurricane Center's addition of more watches and warnings on its familiar "cone of uncertainty," which has been used for more than two decades. It's a teardrop-shaped offering of the most educated guesses available about the direction of a hurricane over its next few days.

AccuWeather is forecasting fewer tropical storms than in recent years, in large part due to wind shear arriving with an El Niño expected later in the season. At the same time, they worry that record-warm Gulf waters may fuel hurricanes strong enough to overpower that wind shear

The National Hurricane Center is rolling out upgraded products for the 2026 hurricane season, including a redesigned cone graphic, new storm surge tools and improved access for mobile users.

The World Meteorological Organization has retired the name Melissa from its Atlantic basin naming lists after the Category 5 devastated Jamaica in 2025.

Phil Klotzbach is one of the preeminent tropical storm forecasters and, in person, he's clearly a hurricane encyclopedia.

The National Hurricane Center is expanding its use of artificial intelligence tools to enhance hurricane tracking and intensity forecasts. The 2026 hurricane season will begin on June 1, 2026.

This year, meteorologists have begun tapping into AI tools to construct their forecasts. Experts stress there are lots of cautions.

It's September — usually a busy month for tropical systems. The African monsoon is the factory of tropical waves, and the Atlantic Basin is all fair game.