Hurricane Forecasting

Colorado State lowers its 2026 hurricane season forecast due to a strong El Niño developing during the season. What does this mean?

In Florida, the forecast cone is only part of the story. Hurricane impacts can extend far beyond the center track — reaching inland through wind, flooding, and tornadoes.

From what El Niño forecasting means to documents to have on hand during an emergency, here are some things to know at the start of the 2026 hurricane season.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season predicts below-normal activity as an impending El Niño will lead to increased wind shear across the basin.

With hurricane season approaching, the National Hurricane Center is preparing to test a new forecast cone and mobile-friendly web pages. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has again proposed eliminating offices that investigate hurricanes and improve forecasts.

The forecast cone shows the likely path of a storm’s center—but in Florida, dangerous impacts often extend far beyond it.

The first named cyclone in the Atlantic basin typically forms around June 20, with meteorologists tracking the first hurricane by Aug. 11. The first named storm will be Arthur.

A developing El Niño could affect Florida in two major ways: fewer Atlantic hurricanes, followed by a wetter, stormier winter with greater severe weather risk. NOAA says El Niño over a 60% chance of developing in summer 2026, with a 1-in-3 chance of becoming strong by late fall.

Forecasters expect tropical cyclone activity could resemble seasons in 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023. El Nino plays a prominent role in each of the seasons.

La Niña officially emerged in September 2025 and lasted until April. Neutral conditions are present, but an El Niño is expected to emerge later in 2026.

Colorado State University is one of the most highly revered names in hurricane forecasting, and for Florida, that matters. Here’s why a landlocked university has become so influential for a state that sees more hurricane hits than any other.

Colorado State University’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook calls for below-normal activity across the Atlantic basin due to a likely transition into an El Niño.