Hurricane Forecasting

Numerous damaging tornadoes are possible even after the hurricane moves inland and weakens; heavy rains will continue throughout Saturday morning across the Florida Panhandle.

A powerful El Niño is already influencing extreme weather around the planet. During the last strong El Niño, federal agencies ramped up research in the hope of improving weather forecasts. This year, they won't be matching that effort.

While most of the current discussion on improving AI for weather focuses on the models or new hardware, the data is crucial.

According to its August outlook, Colorado State University expects nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane to form in 2026.

It's expecting even fewer named storms compared to its last forecast in June.

Colorado State lowers its 2026 hurricane season forecast due to a strong El Niño developing during the season. What does this mean?

In Florida, the forecast cone is only part of the story. Hurricane impacts can extend far beyond the center track — reaching inland through wind, flooding, and tornadoes.

From what El Niño forecasting means to documents to have on hand during an emergency, here are some things to know at the start of the 2026 hurricane season.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season predicts below-normal activity as an impending El Niño will lead to increased wind shear across the basin.

With hurricane season approaching, the National Hurricane Center is preparing to test a new forecast cone and mobile-friendly web pages. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has again proposed eliminating offices that investigate hurricanes and improve forecasts.

The forecast cone shows the likely path of a storm’s center—but in Florida, dangerous impacts often extend far beyond it.

The first named cyclone in the Atlantic basin typically forms around June 20, with meteorologists tracking the first hurricane by Aug. 11. The first named storm will be Arthur.