Hurricane Forecasting

The forecast cone shows the likely path of a storm’s center—but in Florida, dangerous impacts often extend far beyond it.

The first named cyclone in the Atlantic basin typically forms around June 20, with meteorologists tracking the first hurricane by Aug. 11. The first named storm will be Arthur.

A developing El Niño could affect Florida in two major ways: fewer Atlantic hurricanes, followed by a wetter, stormier winter with greater severe weather risk. NOAA says El Niño over a 60% chance of developing in summer 2026, with a 1-in-3 chance of becoming strong by late fall.

Forecasters expect tropical cyclone activity could resemble seasons in 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023. El Nino plays a prominent role in each of the seasons.

La Niña officially emerged in September 2025 and lasted until April. Neutral conditions are present, but an El Niño is expected to emerge later in 2026.

Colorado State University is one of the most highly revered names in hurricane forecasting, and for Florida, that matters. Here’s why a landlocked university has become so influential for a state that sees more hurricane hits than any other.

Colorado State University’s 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook calls for below-normal activity across the Atlantic basin due to a likely transition into an El Niño.

Pre-season predictions on the number of hurricanes that will make landfall in Florida this year are certain to differ among the leading tropical storm forecasters, figures that get refined and reissued as the season unfolds. One thing that will now be a constant is the National Hurricane Center's addition of more watches and warnings on its familiar "cone of uncertainty," which has been used for more than two decades. It's a teardrop-shaped offering of the most educated guesses available about the direction of a hurricane over its next few days.

AccuWeather is forecasting fewer tropical storms than in recent years, in large part due to wind shear arriving with an El Niño expected later in the season. At the same time, they worry that record-warm Gulf waters may fuel hurricanes strong enough to overpower that wind shear

The National Hurricane Center is rolling out upgraded products for the 2026 hurricane season, including a redesigned cone graphic, new storm surge tools and improved access for mobile users.

The World Meteorological Organization has retired the name Melissa from its Atlantic basin naming lists after the Category 5 devastated Jamaica in 2025.

Phil Klotzbach is one of the preeminent tropical storm forecasters and, in person, he's clearly a hurricane encyclopedia.