University of South Florida researchers are working to better understand how people decide whether to evacuate for a hurricane — and how emergency messages can better support those decisions.
The team is led by USF geosciences professor Jennifer Collins and includes a number of students.
They created an online survey for residents affected by hurricanes Helene and Milton to learn what influenced their evacuation decisions, as well as look at how residents receive and use emergency information.
Cassie O’Connor, a doctorate student on the research team, said previous research shows people mostly make evacuation decisions based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which gauges wind speed.
O’Connor said that, as a result, many residents don't take lower-category storms as seriously, and ignore other potentially dangerous threats like flooding and storm surge.
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“I have seen in the past that a lot of people are very protective of their homes, and they want to be there to make sure their homes are OK,” she said. “A lot of people have also changed over time who they listen to.”
She said that many now get weather updates from storm chasers and others on social media platforms like YouTube.
O’Connor said researchers have seen that people are more likely to evacuate when forecast information is communicated clearly, is specific to their area and directly explains the expected impact.
Personalized messaging, she said, helps make the risk feel more real and relevant.
The survey also asked participants to reflect on what they might do differently this hurricane season based on what they went through last year.
“A lot of the time, especially with risk perceptions, people use experience,” O’Connor said. “Their experience helps influence their evacuation decision.”
She said broadcast meteorologists now emphasize storm surge and flooding more than in the past, rather than focusing solely on wind speed, reflecting a changing public concern.
“I think after the past hurricane season, people are starting to recognize that these storms can have different impacts,” she said, referencing Helene’s storm surge. “I would think that what happened with Helene and how close Milton was, there could be changes in how people make evacuation decisions.”
The study, in partnership with the University of Alabama and Auburn University, is open until Sunday.
The team hopes to share its findings with emergency managers, government agencies, nonprofits and other organizations to help shape more effective communication strategies.
“We want to know what the public is confused about and what they need,” she said. “As scientists, it’s our job to make sure we’re communicating in a way that’s understandable and useful.”
The team also plans to publish its findings in an academic journal to support disaster preparation.
