At 2 p.m. ET, the National Hurricane Center officially named Tropical Depression 9 as Imelda. It remains highly disorganized. Maximum sustained winds are at 40 mph, and its center is located approximately 90 miles west of the Central Bahamas, moving northward at a slow pace of 7 mph. This system is likely to continue intensifying, and according to the National Hurricane Center's forecast, it is expected to reach hurricane status by Tuesday morning.
The change between Saturday and Sunday afternoon has been the track. It seems that the cold front exiting the Southeast U.S. will "win the battle" and push this system out to sea. There is also Major Hurricane Humberto located to the east-southeast of Imelda that is interacting with Imelda and could aid in the eastward pull. The system is ragged, but don't expect the showers and storms affecting the Carolinas to be accompanied by any rainbands from this system. The showers are associated with that cold front. For Florida, the origin of the rain is mixed.
Across South Florida, an abundance of moisture is coming in from the tropical depression, but local effects are also enhancing storm activity. During the early afternoon, a few storms moved onshore across Miami-Dade County. Still, further north, over the Treasure Coast, prolific storms were associated with the proximity of the cold front and the influx of moisture from Imelda. You can think of this as this is where the two moist air masses and winds are colliding.
But the front is stalling out a bit further behind, and there is still plenty of instability across inland Central Florida, which is igniting thundestorm activity between Orange, Osceola, and De Soto counties.
Imelda's future
The track has shifted more east, and the turn out to sea is becoming more certain to happen on Tuesday afternoon. The storm is forecast to intensify as it slowly moves north, maintaining its slow speed between Sunday and Monday night. Once the storm strengthens into a hurricane and makes its turn, the speed will increase as it moves away from the U.S. coast. This turn is courtesy of the cold front that is pushing Imelda, which is forecast to remain strong enough to give it this nudge. This is great news for Florida and the rest of the Southeast, as numerous rain showers have been falling in recent days due to the front, especially over the Carolinas.
As the system's track shifts a bit more east, the tropical storm watches currently in effect will be discontinued in the upcoming advisories. Keep in mind that the watches likely to be discontinued are for the immediate coast, not for near-shore and offshore waters. Marine tropical storm watches and warnings are likely to continue to be in effect at least through Tuesday across the waters over Florida's Atlantic side. High seas, rough surf, and a high risk of rip currents are expected to persist at least through Tuesday. Please stay off the water. Waves could be as high as 12 feet near shore, especially along the east-central coast, where beach erosion could still occur.
