Keep an eye on the skies – and the radar – as the Fourth of July forecast calls for another day of on-and-off showers and storms across the Tampa Bay area.
However, it won’t necessarily be a complete washout, the National Weather Service office in Ruskin says. Rain chances are listed at 60% to 70%, but it can be difficult to predict when, where and how heavy the rain will be.
The best bet is to make holiday plans but monitor the radar and weather updates to decide whether to cancel. That includes evening fireworks shows.
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The NWS Ruskin office said the primary concern will continue to be heavy rainfall with the possibility of training storm cells that could lead to lengthy downpours. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are possible, with locally higher amounts possible. Flood advisories are possible.
The pattern is a product of a saturated atmosphere and stalled cold front that has been enhancing storm development, the weather office said.
The stalled front is triggering the development of low pressure that the weather service is giving a medium chance to organize into a tropical system as it drifts northeast into the Atlantic.
Northeast Florida and the Carolina coast could feel the effects of the season's first storm to threaten the U.S.
At 2 a.m. Friday, the low was bout 100 miles east of Jacksonville, and was accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms, the National Hurricane Center said.
"Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form near the southeastern United States late today (Friday) or over the weekend
if the low remains offshore," the hurricane center said.
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Early Friday, the National Hurricane Center listed the formation chance at 50 percent by Saturday. That center raises that to 60 percent within seven days.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday.
If the disturbance develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Chantal.
“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday,” the hurricane center said.
In the Tampa Bay area, a shift toward a more typical summertime sea breeze pattern is expected by Sunday, forecasters said. That would mean numerous showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon, pushing inland toward the early evening.
