Keep an eye on the skies – and the radar – as the Fourth of July forecast calls for another day of on-and-off showers and storms across the Tampa Bay area.
However, it won’t necessarily be a complete washout, the National Weather Service office in Ruskin said. Rain chance for the Tampa region Friday is listed at 60 percent in afternoon and 70 percent Friday evening, according the weather service website. Saturday that rain chance goes up to 80 percent.
The best bet is to make holiday plans but monitor the radar and weather updates to decide whether to cancel. That includes evening fireworks shows.
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The NWS Ruskin office said the primary concern will continue to be heavy rainfall with the possibility of training storm cells that could lead to lengthy downpours. Rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch are possible, as are flood advisories.
The pattern is a product of a saturated atmosphere and stalled cold front that has been enhancing storm development, the weather office said.
The stalled front is triggering the development of low pressure that the weather service is giving a high chance to organize into a tropical system as it drifts northeast into the Atlantic.
Northeast Florida and the Carolina coast could feel the effects of the season's first storm to threaten the U.S.
As of 2 p.m. Friday, the system was located about 150 miles off the northeast Florida coast. It has become better defined with an area of strong winds located on its east side.
The National Hurricane Center said showers and thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the center.
"A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression could form later today (Friday) or on Saturday while the system drifts generally north-northwestward. This low is expected to move inland over the southeastern U.S. by early Sunday," the hurricane center said.
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Friday afternoon, the hurricane center said there's a 70 percent chance of the system forming into a tropical cyclone development.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is investigating the system for further information.
If the disturbance develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Chantal.
“Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday,” the hurricane center said.
In the Tampa Bay area, a shift toward a more typical summertime sea breeze pattern is expected by Sunday, forecasters said. That would mean numerous showers and thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon, pushing inland toward the early evening.
