The fight for which party will control Congress is zoning in on one competitive district in southwest Washington state.
The 3rd Congressional District is a mix of urban, industrial and rural communities with inland and coastal areas. It prides itself on its political independence. President Trump won this congressional district three times. But Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez flipped the district blue in 2022. Now, the Republican nominee, state Sen. John Braun, believes he has a shot at winning it back.
"A lot of districts these days are pretty predictable in terms of their politics," Braun told NPR during an interview at his small manufacturing business. "The third is not. You got to go earn those votes."
The competitive race has a lot on the line, most notably potential control of the House. Democrats likely need Gluesenkamp Perez to hold this seat if they want the House majority. Republicans need Braun to win if they want to keep power and help shepherd Trump's agenda across the finish line before his presidency ends.
Both are at somewhat of a disadvantage. Gluesenkamp Perez is the incumbent in an election cycle that is experiencing an anti-incumbency wave. For Trump-endorsed Braun, the midterm elections tend to be a referendum against the party in power and Republicans have an unpopular president in charge.
The biggest struggle, though, will be appealing to the various communities throughout the district. Urban Vancouver, the district's most populated city, has different needs than the rural coastal towns along the Pacific Ocean.
"They want you and expect you to show up and represent their interests," Braun said. "It gives you a little bit of freedom to vote more independently. But you also have to show up and explain your vote."
Walking the party line
The candidates are really not that different.
Both Gluesenkamp Perez and Braun are considered moderates within their parties, both own small businesses and both reside in rural towns. Both are centering front-of-mind issues for voters in the area. That includes bolstering blue collar work in manufacturing, natural resources, and supporting small businesses. Where they diverge is on some of the traditional partisan faultline issues such as abortion.
There is a balancing act each candidate must perform because partisan politics don't land well in Washington's 3rd District.
This has long been one of the most competitive seats in Congress — former Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler often faced fierce races to keep her seat. She was ousted in the 2022 primary after voting for Trump's impeachment following the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.
"We don't vote down the ballot one way or the other. Trump can win the city, but Marie Gluesenkamp Perez can win the city as well on the same ballot. So it's really person specific," Longview, Wash., Mayor Erik Halvorson told NPR.
"I think loyalty matters, especially for an incumbent," Halvorson said. "I think that polished candidates are not a necessary requirement for Longview and Cowlitz County. I think you just have to be authentic."
When a candidate can't rely on the partisan label next to their name on the ballot, they have to lean on other strengths. Halvorson stressed the need to understand local issues.
Longview used to be solely known for the timber industry. It was founded to house employees of the local timber mill. But as the natural resource economy changed and the logging industry shrank, mills closed and jobs vanished.
"I do feel like the tariffs have hit a lot of our industry here hard on the federal level," said Halvorson.
That's where John Braun feels he has a distinct advantage in this race. He owns Braun Northwest Inc., an emergency vehicle manufacturing facility. Walking through his manufacturing facility, Braun pointed out all the different materials used to build an ambulance or fire truck. The cost of those materials has increased because of tariffs and the price hike is passed onto consumers, which in Braun's case, mostly consists of American cities and municipalities.
Braun thinks that makes him uniquely qualified to advocate for the trades and did so regularly during his time in the state legislature. While Braun has Trump's endorsement, he hasn't pegged himself as a loyalist. One issue he would break with Trump on, Braun said, is tariffs.
"There are some appropriate uses for tariffs. But kind of the indiscriminate use, the broad use, the blanketed use, just that doesn't work," he said. "We need to be a little more thoughtful on tariff policy."
Gluesenkamp Perez backlash
Vancouver, Wash., is the urban center of this congressional district and the city has recently come into its own.
Considered to be part of the Portland, Ore., metro area, many Vancouverites argue their city's identity is unique. Gretchen Hoyt's family has lived here for four generations. She was always slightly resentful of outsiders (and insiders) smooshing the two towns into one.
Vancouver has put a lot of money into development. They have repurposed historic buildings into multiuse spaces and made the downtown more walkable. The city built a waterfront along the Columbia River that houses luxury apartments and classy eateries – the kind of restaurants Hoyt notes are "special occasion meals" because they're too pricey for the locals to eat at frequently.
She admits all the updates have beautified her hometown and inspired residents to spend more of their time and money in Vancouver. The investment has also led to growth and Hoyt worries a place that used to be a reprieve from high Portland housing prices has developed a similar reputation for being unaffordable.
"It's so hard to buy a house here right now," she said. "It's like everything .. is over $700,000 and for things that are just aren't worth that."
Another thing that has changed about Vancouver is its politics.
Clark County, where Vancouver is located, has slowly gotten bluer since 2008. Vancouver itself, Hoyt observed, has shifted toward the progressive side of the scale. That progressive tilt proposes trouble for Gluesenkamp Perez, especially since Clark County is one of two counties she consistently won since her first run for Congress.
Two congressional votes that have ruffled feathers among Clark County Democrats. Gluesenkamp Perez voted in favor of a Republican sponsored bill dubbed "The Don't Say Trans Bill," which would require parental consent if a public school student wanted to go by a different name or gender in the classroom.
She also voted for the SAVE Act, claiming the controversial Republican-led voter I.D. legislation spawned by Trump would help secure America's election system.
"People feel betrayed because people thought, 'OK cool. She owns her own business. … Really. Like I'm one of you.' Then it felt like that was just a schtick in order to get the blue vote," Hoyt explained.
Gluesenkamp Perez defended her approval of the legislation.
"I do not support noncitizens voting in American elections — and that's common sense to folks in Southwest Washington. Voting in our nation's elections is a sacred right belonging only to American citizens, and my vote for the SAVE Act reflects that principle," she wrote in an April statement.
Gluesenkamp Perez did not respond to NPR's multiple interview requests.
In retaliation for those votes, progressive Democrats in Vancouver put up a primary challenger on Gluesenkamp Perez's left. While the congresswoman ultimately won one of the top two general election seats in Washington's open primary system, it exposed her vulnerability among the district's Democratic base.
"Nobody is happy with Marie, but they're not voting for John. So they're voting their conscience. It feels like the lesser of two evils," Hoyt said.
Beyond the cities
The impact of tariffs, regulation — and the national economy as a whole –- has the ability to make or break rural communities across the district. Any changes are acutely felt in the coastal region.
Kathleen Nisbet, owner of Goose Point Oysters, took over her family's shellfish farm in Bay Center, Wash., a small town of about 200 people next to the Pacific Ocean.
Nisbet has lived in the remote Pacific County town pretty much her whole life. She has seen a once prosperous area, which was propped up by aquaculture industries, transition into somewhat of a ghost town.
To her, the vacated businesses are a testament to how regulations have suffocated small shellfish farms. Nisbet counted on her fingers ten different regulatory agencies she must pay and answer to in order to keep her doors open and estimated she spends around $200,000 a year on agency fees.
"The regulations that we have been dealing with for the last 25 years have impacted our areas in that we've lost our farmers and we've lost our fishermen," Nisbet said.
Nisbet isn't against regulation. Her qualms are they aren't streamlined, they change frequently and are cost prohibitive for small and medium sized producers.
Now, Nisbet is dealing with another problem: Trump's trade war.
"We've lost over 50% of our international sales due to the current political climate between us and Asian countries," she said.
The concern is, if the trade wars continue or worsen, that there will be an even steeper decline to the industry area was built on. More farms will close or consolidate with big fisheries. The identity of the area could disappear.
"We need to make sure that we are building community resilience through natural resources, which has been the traditional backbone of our communities," she emphasized.
Nearby Ilwaco has also been on the receiving end of the industrial downfall. While there is some semblance of natural resource extraction, such as timber, seafood catches and cranberries, for the most part, the coastal town of about 1,400 people has had to pivot to invigorate the economy.
The number one industry in Ilwaco is now hospitality. Restaurants, motels and small shops welcome visitors to the town, a significant portion of whom travel through on their way to or from Cape Disappointment State Park. The town has been working to open more businesses that would attract visitors. Most recently, Ilwaco Cider Company, the town's only brewery, opened its doors.
Ilwaco councilman Matt Lessnau, who grew up in the town and moved back during the pandemic, said the cidery is the perfect example of what Ilwaco is trying to build.
"It really has been a tremendous asset in really growing the kind of businesses that we want to see grow in Ilwaco," he said.
But there is a limited tourism season. The town makes the majority of its revenue during the summer months and it relies on federal dollars to help with infrastructure needs because the local tax base isn't there — only about half the population lives in the town full time.
The rural parts of Washington's 3rd District may have fewer people but it's still influential. Pacific County voted for Trump in 2024 but also elected Gluesenkamp Perez. She narrowly won this county in 2022, too.
Lessnau said a congressional candidate needs to understand the local issues of the rural coastal towns to be electable. Additionally, he added, the candidate needs to be relatable.
"We have historically valued representatives that understand our economy and our struggles," Lessnau said. "We have a very low tolerance for bulls***."
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