In the aftermath of the U.S. arresting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in a brazen operation on Jan. 3, the Republic of Cuba — highly dependent on Venezuelan oil — is facing its worst economic crisis since the communist revolutionaries seized power 67 years ago.
In the days since Maduro's capture, President Donald Trump has effectively seized control of the Venezuelan oil industry and declared that no more oil will be sent to Cuba.
Things were already bad for the Cuban government and the Cuban people. Now things will likely get worse.
Even with the help of its longtime socialist allies in Venezuela sending oil, electricity blackouts have recently been hitting much of the island for 20 hours a day, affecting everything from hospital power to food storage and manufacturing. A veritable cocktail of tropical mosquito-born diseases known as El Virus is ripping through the country. Millions of Cubans have migrated abroad in the last few years — the largest wave of out-migration the country has ever seen.
Without Venezuelan oil to help run manufacturing and agricultural operations, material conditions are likely to deteriorate further.
Trump has ominously warned the Cuban government that its days are numbered, one way or the other: "Make a deal, before it's too late."
With Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the helm, the threat is being taken seriously.
Rubio is a Cuban-American who has spent his entire public life calling for regime change in Cuba, and he has hinted at the potential of tightening the screws of the Cuban Embargo to increase pressure on the Cuban regime.
For his part, Cuban president Miguel Diaz-Canel said there are no active negotiations between the US and Cuban governments. On X, Diaz-Canel stated that Cuba has always been willing to have discussions with the U.S., but only on the basis of "sovereign equality, mutual respect, principles of International Law, and mutual benefit without interference in internal affairs and with full respect for our independence."
A recent poll from the independent Cuban outlet El Toque found that Cubans living outside the island are most immediately concerned about freeing political prisoners from the island's jail cells. Cubans living on the island, however, are mostly worried about the ongoing economic and energy crisis gripping the country.
With all this in mind, WLRN spoke to five Cuban experts — including a political dissident, an economist and a former U.S. congressman — about what this moment means for the future of the island nation and its relationship with the U.S.
Their comments have been lightly edited for clarity.
Jose Daniel Ferrer, longtime Cuban political dissident and recently released political prisoner
"This is the best moment we've had in the last 67 years. The U.S. has always been the country with the most solidarity with Cubans — but right now it's showing that solidarity very firmly and clearly.
"I believe the situation can be terrible. Cuba has to stand up and confront tyranny and put an end to tyranny."
"The U.S. is saying to the regime: Either negotiate to leave, or we will take you out. And that is motivating a lot of dissidents on the island to mobilize.
"I think the time of Cuba having strong sponsors [like the Soviet Union or Venezuela] is over. The U.S. is helping and Cubans on the island and off the island will keep moving against the government — I think the government is preparing itself for a collapse.
"I fear [hunger and deteriorating conditions] a lot. I believe the situation can be terrible.
"But I will recite to you a verse of [Cuban Independence hero] Bartolomé Masó: 'Compatriots: an oppressed or docile people that allows itself to be oppressed should never have existed, nor should it exist.'
"Cuba cannot allow itself to continue under hunger, oppression and misery. It has to stand up and confront tyranny and put an end to tyranny. What happens is not going to be the fault of the United States."
Ricardo Torres, Cuban economist and research fellow at American University in Washington D.C.
"Roughly speaking, Cuba demands something like 100,000 barrels of oil per day. Venezuela, according to the best estimates that we have, during 2025, on average, was providing something slightly above 30,000 barrels of oil per day. Meaning Venezuela supplies roughly a third of Cuba's total demand, a demand that is not enough to meet all needs in Cuba. So reducing that third to zero, well, that's a huge impact on top of what's already going on in Cuba.
"Now, an open question is: Is Mexico able to step up and make up for the loss of Venezuelan oil? My informed answer is that this is unlikely."
"Energy's a key input. It does have a snowball effect throughout the economy. You need electricity and fuel for irrigation purposes. In agriculture, for instance, without irrigation, yields go down.
" Mexico has been increasing oil shipments to Cuba in the last few years. The numbers come and go, it's hard to have precise numbers. But it's an important supplier these days. Now, an open question is: Is Mexico able to step up and make up for the loss of Venezuelan oil?
"Well, we don't know. My informed answer is that this is unlikely. Unlikely because Mexico has been already pushing the limits when it comes to the oil that is already sending to Cuba. And I say that because Mexico has to protect its relationship with the United States.
"As for the Cuban people, even beyond ideology, I think most people want change in terms of they want to see the light at the end of the tunnel in terms of, 'I want my life to be better.' The system doesn't work. That is almost like an absolute truth to me. It doesn't work. The same system was tried in other countries, rich and poor, and it never worked. So we know that for a fact.
"But what is the Cuban perspective? To start with, is it the Cuban government's or is it the Cuban people? Is it the Cubans that live in Cuba, or is it the Cubans also that live outside Cuba? It's hard to tell. And I don't think all those interests are aligned, frankly speaking.
"Let us not forget that we're talking about humans — about people, right? So these are not objects. I've got family living on the island.
"There is a balance that I hope becomes part of the discussion there. You may want to step up your pressure to signal your intent — I mean, we want change and we want to drive change, or we want to accompany change in Cuba. On the other hand, on humanitarian grounds you may want to be careful.
"My preferred course of action is that change must happen within Cuba."
Orlando Gutierrez-Boronat, national secretary of the Miami-based Cuban Democratic Directorate
"The Cuban regime is a parasite. It's a foreign body that's been sapping away the lifeblood of the Cuban nation for 67 years. As long as they're there, you can't help the people. The only way we can really directly help the Cuban people is once that regime is out of power. I tell you, as someone who has tried repeatedly in different humanitarian drives to send medicine and aid to Cuba: the regime always gets in and they always keep as much as 40% or 50% of what's sent.
"I see massive civil resistance and then the regime petering out. If there's real support from the U.S., Cubans can do it."
"So you have to get rid of that parasite. I don't recall ever being as close as we are now.
"I think that the moment is now to put maximum pressure on that regime leadership. They're having serious internal issues. You're seeing the purges and the public differences among them that we're seeing, that we hadn't seen either in a long time, or ever.
"Cuban people want change. Cuban people want that regime out.
"I see massive civil resistance and then the regime petering out. In a very general way, that's how I see it happening. Maybe there'll be spectacular things here and there, but mostly that just a wearing out and, and a collapse of the regime with a sustained civic uprising. Which — we're very close.
"You really need profound change there, and that change has to come, and it has been coming from the Cuban society. Cubans have rebelled over and over again against that regime. It's a myth that they haven't — and every time they've been abandoned. Now, if there's real support this time from the U.S. and a real willingness to bring about democratic change, Cubans can do it.
Marcell Felipe, chairman of the American Museum of the Cuban Diaspora in Miami
"This is the acceleration of the inevitable. Maybe it's not something obvious to those that don't observe Cuba, but Cuba was not gonna survive 2026 with the implementation of the National Security Strategy presented by Secretary of State [Marco] Rubio, which repositions US policy and once again prioritizes — as it should have been for a long time — the Americas as a national security interest for the United States.
"This is the acceleration of the inevitable. The biggest enemy is the bad actors inside the United States."
"Jan. 3 wasn't just the end of the Maduro regime. It marked a change in U.S policy towards the world. Not just Latin America, it's towards the world. Every major foreign policy expert or advisor to every president has always prioritized Latin America. Russia prioritizes the countries near it. China prioritizes the country near it. The concept of a buffer zone for any global power dates back to antiquity. It's a basic principle of international relations. It doesn't matter how small your enemy is, you can't have an enemy regardless of size next to your borders if you're a major power, because whoever your real enemy is — it's gonna use it.
"Ideally to avoid bloodshed I'd like to see the current dictators accept a negotiated exit so that we can start rebuilding Cuba. If they don't do that, I think there's going to be an exit for them anyways. It is just not going to be as orderly or as negotiated.
"So I hope that — as the president said — I hope they do that. I hope that President Trump continues relying on Marco Rubio's leadership.
"Our greatest worry is that there's people in the administration that do not want Marco Rubio to succeed. There's people in the administration that want the Cuba, and Venezuelan policy to fail, so hopefully those voices will not prevail and Marco Rubio's voice will continue to prevail.
"The biggest threat, the biggest enemy — it's not the people in Cuba, it's the bad actors inside the United States."
Joe Garcia, Democratic former Miami Congressman and broker of private businesses in Cuba
"There are people in the administration who believe this is the moment to open up to the private sector in Cuba. Very intelligently, when this administration wrote its policy on Cuba, it left in promoting private business in Cuba. Some of the people wanted to be against it philosophically, a lot of them are against it.
"How much worse do we need to make it before we have a rational response and use our power for good?"
"Whenever you deal with Cuba, you're dealing with this countervailing thing, because in the end, you wanna make sure your mother can eat. I'm not gonna let my mother starve, right? And the proof is that almost $7 billion in remittances go in one form or another every year through travel through packages. There are three container ship delivery companies in the Miami River alone.
" Maria Corina [Machado] is the opposition party outside of Venezuela. To some degree — we don't have a Maria Corina. We don't have a Nobel Peace Prize Laureate. But we have a tremendous amount of accumulated political and economic power.
"And the question is, do we want to solve this problem or do we wanna [mess] around with it endlessly? Do we want Cuba to be like Haiti? Is that the victory? What is the victory? People are sitting in the dark in Cuba, 22, 20, 21 hours a day. There are diseases like chikungunya and oropouche and dengue, which are ravaging the Cuban population.
"How much worse do we need to make it before we have a rational response and use our power for good?"
Copyright 2026 WLRN
