In 2024, President Trump won the largest share of Latino votes for any Republican presidential candidate in history — 46% — but a new poll suggests he has squandered it, at least outside Florida.
The national survey of Latino voters — conducted by Florida International University's Latino Public Opinion Forum (LPOF) and presented this week at FIU's Latin American and Caribbean Center — shows more than two-thirds of that swing bloc now disapprove of Trump and feel the country is on the wrong track.
Sixty percent said they'll vote Democrat in November's mid-term elections.
"This is a very significant recalibration," said FIU political science professor and LPOF director Eduardo Gamarra.
"On substantive issues, including cost of living and immigration tactics, Latinos appear to be returning to the Democratic Party."
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That reset is especially ominous for Trump and the GOP among the large cohort of Latino independents — only 29% of whom approve of Trump's performance.
"They determined the outcome among Latinos in 2024 and likely again in November," Gamarra said.
Affordability — the issue that most helped push Latinos away from former President Joe Biden and the Democrats in 2024 — is ironically the biggest concern moving them away from Trump and his party now, followed by immigration policy and healthcare costs.
On immigration, the poll in fact shows only a slight majority (52%) oppose Trump's deportation agenda per se — but a much larger share (66%) disapprove of the controversial detention and deportation methods of Trump's Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, or ICE. And almost 90% want to see a pathway to citizenship set up for lawful undocumented migrants.
On foreign policy, 58% of Latinos in the poll disapprove of Trump's "Donroe Doctrine" in the western hemisphere and its more militarized security agenda in Latin America.
Exception in Florida
Still, 81% of Latinos who identify as Republican continue to support Trump. And, not surprisingly, Florida Latinos — especially Cubans — were the poll's exception.
Whereas the survey showed Trump's net approval as low as minus-55% among Latinos in large states like California, Texas and Arizona, Florida was "the least anti-Trump state" at only minus-10%.
Among Florida Cubans, the numbers jump dramatically.
"Fifty-three percent of Cubans support Trump," said Gamarra, "which would make them group with the highest support for Trump in the country, across all the electorate."
Those Cuban figures hold up on immigration policy as well, in spite of growing frustration in enclaves like Miami over increased Cuban deportations.
More than 70% of Cubans said they support Trump's deportation campaign — and 55% of Florida Latinos back it as well.
Cubans, however, are decidedly outliers. Trump registers his biggest disapproval with the Latino community's biggest groups: Mexicans and Puerto Ricans.
The LPOF poll is just the latest reminder that Trump and the Republicans are back in a hole with Latinos. A year ago this month, in fact, a Pew Research survey marked Trump's disapproval with those voters at a stunning 72%.
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