In the next few weeks, seven Hillsborough County commissioners and seven Tampa City Council members may take what could be the most financially impactful and politically fraught vote of their careers – whether to provide public subsidies for a new stadium for the Tampa Bay Rays.
With county elections six months away, and city elections next March, there are already hints that political repercussions from that vote could alter or even end the political careers of those who have to take a stand on the issue.
Mailers have already gone out from a shadowy political committee attacking at least three of the county commissioners over the issue, suggesting they will be breaking promises and betraying voters if they support the Rays’ proposal.
One prominent, arch-conservative local political activist, Sam Rashid, has publicly promised – using characteristically incandescent language – to fund campaigns against commissioners who favor a public subsidy for the stadium. That statement may have led to a sheriff’s office report of a threat.
Florida has seen this kind of political storm before.
In 2009, when the Miami-Dade County commissioners and the Miami City Commission voted to subsidize a new stadium for the Miami Marlins – a deal that quickly became regarded as a major boondoggle – the result was a seismic political upheaval.
ALSO READ: In reply to county, Rays push for May vote amid unresolved stadium funding issues
“There was a tremendous backlash … For years there were problems for anyone who voted for it,” said former Miami state Rep. Joe Geller, now a Miami-Dade school board member.
According to veteran Miami political consultant Keith Donner, political repercussions wholly or partly resulting from the vote included:
- An upset in the Miami mayor’s race shortly after the vote, in which City Commission member Tomas Regalado, who voted against the deal, crushed yes-voter Joe Sanchez
- Successful recall elections two years later against two supporters, Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Alvarez and entrenched County Commissioner Natacha Seijas, both by 88-12 percent. Alvarez faced voter anger over other issues including budget mismanagement, but the similar numerical outcomes suggest a common issue, Donner said.
- Squelching the political careers of deal supporters Miami Dade Commissioner Bruno Barreiro and then-Miami Mayor Manny Diaz, who had been considered a Democratic “golden boy” with a bright future.
The years following the votes on the deal were “three of the most turbulent political years of my experience,” said Donner.
The city and county had agreed to pay about 75 percent of the cost of construction of the $515 million stadium, along with the necessary land and other contributions.
Shortly after the votes, public outrage erupted when bonds were issued and it became clear that, including bond interest, taxpayers would be on the hook for $2.4 billion or more over 40 years. The anger intensified when team owner Jeff Loria sold the team in 2017 for $1.2 billion – having bought it in 2002 for $158 million, according to news reports.
There are significant differences between the Miami public officials’ approval of the Marlins deal and the Tampa/Hillsborough officials’ consideration of the Rays proposal, local officials say.
While Donner noted that “the business and political elites” in Miami pushed for the Marlins deal fervently, several of today’s Tampa and Hillsborough public officials, notably county Commissioner Josh Wostal and government staff, are asking skeptical questions about the proposal.
There’s no clear majority among either the city or county elected officials for the deal; even those who appear inclined one way or the other say their minds are still open.
Commissioner Harry Cohen, subject of one of the attack mailers because he has said he “would love to be able to vote yes on this,” still insists he must be “absolutely convinced,” and isn’t yet.
City Council member Lynn Hurtak is running for mayor and may have to campaign next spring after voting on the Rays deal.
“My mind is definitively not made up … but I’m very skeptical at this point,” she said.
But there are also similarities between the deals.
As the Rays are doing now, the Marlins cited time pressure and pushed elected officials for a quick decision.
The Miami-Dade commissioners approved the Marlins deal in a vote that took place after midnight at the end of a 9½-hour meeting, according to news reports from the time.
And as the Marlins did, the Rays are raising the prospect of moving elsewhere if they don’t get approval of their terms by June 1.
“Missing the 2029 construction timeline would materially increase costs and invalidate the proposed budget,” Rays CEO Ken Babby said in a letter to the county commissioners. “Should this commitment ultimately not be achievable, we would have no choice but to evaluate alternatives.”
But Cohen said he and the other Hillsborough commissioners won’t be stampeded.
“We’re not doing it that way,” he said of the Miami debacle. “Our county administration is involved in very tough negotiations. This is going to be done deliberately and transparently … It can’t be done under dark of night.”
The controversy over the Rays proposal has created strange political bedfellows.
Among the leading opponents are hard-right conservatives including Wostal and Rashid, along with progressives such as former Commissioner Pat Kemp, a liberal Democrat.
“I can’t wrap my head around what they want to do to the county budget for a billionaire,” Kemp said.
Asked about being on the same side of an issue as her political arch-enemy Wostal, Kemp replied, “I’m glad to be on the same side – it’s the right side to be on. I’m glad he’s speaking up on it.”
Conservative influencer Karen Jaroch, who has sharply criticized the deal, said much the same about Kemp.
“I want to be on the right side. If Pat Kemp has found herself there, good – a broken clock,” she said. “I’m sorry this is being supported by Republicans.”
Meanwhile, “Center right and center left are more supportive,” said Tampa Democratic political consultant Jason Marlow.
City Council member Bill Carlson, also running for mayor, said he’ll decide only after the last of the council’s public hearings and seeing details of the deal – negotiations between the Rays and county staff have not produced a deal yet – but sees arguments for and against.
“I’m very fiscally conservative and want to make sure the public’s money is being used wisely … I don’t believe economic impact numbers,” he said. But he also noted that the deal has advantages – “It would go in a place that could use development. There could be economic benefit there, and the synergies with Hillsborough College.”
Bob Buckhorn, the former two-term Tampa mayor who is running again, recently got a $50,000 donation from the Rays.
Buckhorn is the only local candidate to get money from the Rays, but he also won’t be in office to cast a vote on the proposal. He said he probably won’t take a public position for or against it.
“I won’t have a vote on it and I’ll rely on those that do to get the best deal they can,” he said. “As mayor I may be responsible for living with the ramifications and completing the construction.”
Among the county commissioners who may vote on the deal May 6, Democrats Cohen and Gwen Myers face re-election in November, along with Republicans Wostal and Donna Cameron Cepeda.
Republicans Christine Miller and Chris Boles are up in 2028 along with Republican Ken Hagan, the strongest proponent of a stadium deal.
ALSO READ: Hillsborough tells Rays it won't meet June 1 stadium deadline, seeks answers on team's financing
On the City Council, with all seven seats and the mayor’s office up for election next March, term-limited Luis Viera plans a run for the state House; Hurtak and Carlson are in the mayor’s race; Naya Young and Alen Clendenin have filed for re-election and Guido Maniscalco plans to file; and Charlie Miranda is expected to as well.
Miranda has historically opposed any public subsidy for sports stadiums, and even wore black to council meetings for years after approval of the subsidies for Raymond James stadium, “in mourning for the taxpayer.” He’ll be a hard no again, he confirmed.
But his opponent, Hoyt Prindle, is open-minded.
“I’m waiting to see what the final proposal is going to be,” he said. “I’m generally not a huge fan of public money subsidizing sports stadiums,” but the accompanying mixed-use development “could produce a significant return on investment. I could end up potentially being supportive”
Will voters react against those who vote against their wishes?
“I’m not sure it will have an effect,” said political consultant Marlow. “The national mood is the lunar effect that is pulling the tides. That’s on people’s minds more than whether baseball comes here or not.”
He noted a recent poll that found substantial majorities of likely voters in favor of keeping the Rays in Tampa, but opposed to using sales tax money from the Community Investment Tax (CIT) to subsidize a stadium. Hagan has said that’s a crucial part of the deal.
“Once the Rays are forced to compromise further, I think it’s likely the average taxpayer will be more supportive,” with the CIT money being the key issue, Marlow said. “I would advise a hypothetical candidate to be cautiously optimistic about the deal.”
But Jaroch, the conservative influencer, disagreed.
“I think there will be political consequences if the public is informed of what’s really going on,” she said, citing the promise made by the commissioners when the current round of the CIT tax was approved in 2024 that the money wouldn’t be used for a new sports stadium.
“Voters voted for the renewal based on that assurance,” she said. “It was a big deal at the time” in part because of long-simmering dissatisfaction that substantial sums from the earlier round of the tax went for Raymond James Stadium.
“I think you’re going to see voters feeling betrayed” if CIT money goes for the deal she said. Possible use of county reserve funds, which come partly from property taxes, would be “another betrayal of the taxpayers.”
Rashid directed his threats at county Commissioner Miller in a Facebook post.
“There are rotting carcasses of previous county commissioners buried all around (Miller’s District 4) when they tried to pull the same bs on taxpayers in the past - I should know, I buried them all,” he wrote.
Rashid, a business owner, has a history of using his substantial fortune to pay for mailers and other electioneering attacks on those he believes have betrayed conservative causes, and said he’s willing to do so again – even though it goes against the wishes of Gov. Ron DeSantis. DeSantis backs the deal and has supported facilitating it with hundreds of millions in publicly owned land and reconstruction costs for Hillsborough College..
Rashid said he singled out Miller because he has heard she supports the proposal and because she represents District 4 covering conservative East Hillsborough.
Rashid said Miller reported his Facebook post to the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s office as a threat, and that he was contacted by an investigator who decided it wasn’t.
Miller didn’t respond to messages seeking comment from the Florida Trident. The sheriff’s office produced no records of the incident; Rashid said the matter was handled informally with no documentation produced.
One of three mailers sent out by opponents of the Rays stadium Rashid is widely suspected of being behind mailers that have attacked Cohen, Hagan and Miller because of their potential support for the deal, but he denied that.
“Christine Miller campaigned as a fiscal conservative – then she flipped,” says the mailer attacking Miller, which included her cell phone number.
“Rays owner now demanding $2.25 billion in public stadium spending, land, and tax breaks,” says the attack on Cohen.
“I’m aware they are being attributed to me,” Rashid said via email. “Someone obviously wants me to be the boogieman. … I’ll wait for the vote outcome before I even consider getting involved.”
The mailers say they’re being sent by the Orlando-based Ax the Tax Committee formerly prominent for opposing taxes for public transit projects in Orlando and Tampa.
However, that committee no longer exists, according to a Trident examination of state campaign finance and corporate records.
This article first appeared on Florida Trident and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
