MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:
We begin this hour talking about Iran. That is because President Trump says he will act with, quote, "speed and violence" against the country if he doesn't get a nuclear deal. Negotiations are set for tomorrow in Oman. They follow the slaughter last month of thousands of protesters in Iran. So can the U.S. and Iran reach a deal? Put another way, can Iran talk its way out of a U.S. attack? That is what I discussed with national security correspondent Greg Myre and science and security correspondent Geoff Brumfiel on NPR's national security podcast, Sources & Methods.
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KELLY: OK. So we have these huge protests in Iran. We have a brutal crackdown by the leaders of Iran. And how did we get from that to, suddenly, there's a U.S. armada - to use President Trump's word - building up off the coast of Iran. Greg?
GREG MYRE: Yeah. It wasn't a direct line because as these protests were playing out in January, President Trump said the U.S. would support the protesters. That seemed to be the focus. It was never quite clear what he would do. And then we saw the massive crackdown, and the protests largely stopped at that point. But then it has sort of morphed as the U.S. built up this military force off the coast of Iran and throughout the Middle East. It seemed like some confrontation was still building up, even though the protests were gone.
KELLY: Which is a big pivot from human rights, and we're going to come help you, Iranian protesters, to and I'm sending an aircraft carrier and a bunch of support ships to the coast off of Iran.
MYRE: Absolutely. And it doesn't seem like the protesters - their grievances - are on the agenda in these talks in Oman. So, as you say, yes. It's a big pivot. The threat of force is still there, but it's gone to talking about the nuclear issue again, as we've seen so many times in the past with Iran. So yeah. You could have missed that pivot if you weren't paying close attention.
KELLY: Well, and I guess my basic question is, why? And what is the U.S. interest here? I mean, President Trump, like, to be fair, many American presidents who came before, he frames his policy in terms of what's in it for the U.S. What's in it for the U.S. here?
MYRE: Well, he has not spelled that out clearly. It could be several things. It could be a military attack to take out the head of Iran. But that wouldn't bring about massive, sweeping regime change. It is a big regime that has many components to it. You could go after the security forces, the revolutionary guards and others who carried out these (ph) slaughter of protesters.
Or you could hit at Iran's nuclear program, as we saw last June, when the U.S. and Israel teamed up and, for 12 days, bombed nuclear sites and related sites as well. So it could be any or all of the above, or it could be just massive pressure to try to get a negotiated nuclear deal. And Trump, as the president who tore up the last one, would certainly want to be able to say that he got a much better deal than Barack Obama did in 2015.
KELLY: One last thing on this, which is, as we eye the prospects for a new nuclear deal - when he first came into office, Greg, back in 2017, the U.S. had a nuclear deal with Iran. Trump pulled the U.S. out of that. Is there a realistic shot at a new deal?
MYRE: Oh, I think there's a realistic shot if both sides decide they want one. Iran has been greatly weakened in the past couple of years by the wars in the region that have set back Iran itself and its proxies. So it would be looking for a way out of this immediate crisis, and therefore, it may be willing to make some concessions. But it's pretty clear the Trump administration wants not only major concessions on the nuclear program, essentially stopping all enrichment, but they want this highly enriched uranium that seems to be hiding out there somewhere. They want that exported out of the country.
They also want Iran to get rid of its missiles, which is, really, its one way of fighting back against the U.S. and Israel. And it also wants Iran to cut off its support for its proxy network - Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis. And those are things Iran doesn't want to do. So if it stays narrowly focused on the nuclear issue, then yes, a deal is possible.
GEOFF BRUMFIEL: Yeah. And I mean, that's exactly kind of what happened with the last deal, right? They agreed to narrow it on nuclear issues only, and Iran showed a great willingness to do that. But I think especially after this latest conflict with Israel, you know, the only thing that worked really for Iran was its missiles, and I just can't imagine they would give those up easily.
MYRE: And the one other thing I would add is Iran is going to make demands, as well. If it's willing to make concessions on its nuclear program or anything else, it's going to want something in return - almost certainly some sort of sanctions relief. So would President Trump be willing to give some concession to Iran after it's just slaughtered thousands of these civilian protesters?
KELLY: Excellent question there from Greg Myre. You also heard Geoff Brumfiel. And we were speaking on NPR's national security podcast, Sources & Methods. Hear our full conversation wherever you get your podcasts. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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