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State lawmakers are making decisions that touch your life, every day. Like how roads get built and why so many feathers get ruffled over naming an official state bird. Your Florida is a reporting project that seeks to help you grasp the workings of state government.

Red, blue, or neither? The changing color of Florida politics

The Tallahassee Capitol building is shown behind blue and red filters, with a donkey and an elephant on either side.
Meghan Bowman
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Canva
Historically, Florida has been seen as a swing state. Since 1972, Democrats have had the majority of registered voters. In 2021, Republicans took the lead and have continued to increase their margin over Democrats. However, experts say they are not convinced the state is entirely red.

Florida was a predominantly blue state for decades. Then it shifted to a swing state. Now it's more than 40 percent red. But experts say it might not be as red as you think.

Are you team elephant or donkey? Red or blue? Or none of the above?

The major parties in the U.S. today are Democrats and Republicans. The two-party system became more solidified between 1824 and 1840.

Other political parties, like Independents and Libertarians, or those who don’t pick a party at all, exist. But it's been more than 50 years since a third-party candidate has won a state during a presidential election, according to the Pew Research Center.

In Florida, the last time it happened was in 1848, when Zachary Taylor of the Whig Party became president.

The Sunshine State was a predominantly blue state for decades. Then it shifted to a swing state. Now it's more than 40 percent red. But some local elections flipped to blue this week.

So Florida might not be as red as you think.

Changing parties

The two major parties have dominated politics in the state since the Civil War. From 1972 to 2020, Democrats had the majority of registered voters. In 2021, Republicans took the lead and have continued to increase their margin over Democrats.

Bar graph breaks down the voter registration in Florida from 2020 to 2025.
Meghan Bowman
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WUSF
Voter registration in Florida has shifted in the past six years. Democrats once had a slim majority over Republicans, but after 2021, Republicans took the lead. Data provided by the Florida Division of Elections.

But Teri H., who grew up Republican, is going in the other direction.

“I haven't changed that much, but I feel like the party has," he said. "And, you know, the party (kind of) abandoned me."

Teri asked WUSF not to use his last name because of the risk of retaliation at his job. After joining the military, Teri enrolled at the University of North Florida and became chair of its College Republicans. Now he lives in Orlando.

But he became disenchanted with the GOP after a few years. He said once he saw President Donald Trump come down the golden escalator in 2015 to start his first campaign, he switched to the Democratic Party.

"The Republican Party doesn't stand for any of the things that it used to stand for," he said. "And there (are) a lot of guys out there that want to pretend that it still does... And it's like, no, these are policies that have real impacts on the real world and real families."

“The Republican Party didn't drift further to the right; they took a hard right turn. They yanked it off the road," he added.

Political party influences

Teri said one of his first memories is going to the polls with his mom in 1980 to vote for Ronald Reagan.

Woman with dark hair and royal blue shirt stands in front of green shrubs.
Stetson University
Kelly Smith is a political analyst at Stetson University. She says she wants to see a few more election cycles before saying the state is entirely red.

Stetson University political analyst Kelly Smith said one of the strongest influences in choosing a political party starts at home.

"If your parents identify as Democrats, you're much more likely to identify as a Democrat, and if your parents are Republicans, you're much more likely to identify as a Republican," she said.

However, Smith said there has been a rise in people switching to Independent. Minor party registrations rose by about 13,000 in the past year.

You can also register as No Party Affiliation, or NPA.

While NPA and the Independent Party are similar, they have subtle differences. Floridians can register as either. Though they won’t be able to vote in party primaries.

"But most people who identify as an Independent vote consistently for one of the two major parties," Smith said. "They just don't have the party on their voter registration.”

Voting in the primaries is important to Nina M., who moved to Pensacola from California 8 years ago. She was a registered Democrat and switched to the Republican Party.

Man in dark blue suit stands in front of a light blue background.
Republican Party of Florida
The Republican Party has increased its registered-voter majority in Florida each year since 2021. Florida Party Chair Evan Power said the Republicans are winning because they deliver on campaign promises.

“I started finding that there was never anything on my ballot during primary times," she said. "I’d just be like, 'Why aren't I getting a ballot?' And then I'm like, 'Oh, because I'm in such a red area that it's mostly GOP primaries.'”

Nina asked WUSF not to use her last name for fear of retaliation. She said she might switch back to blue, but wouldn’t want to leave the major parties.

Other reasons people switch parties

Nina said other people she knows have also switched parties for similar reasons.

"Some out of fear, because they didn't want their neighbors knowing they were Democrats," she said. "Some out of wanting to be able to vote in the primaries.”

Jen Ryan grew up in Florida and has always been a Democrat. After relocating to the Big Apple for about 20 years, she moved back to the Treasure Coast in 2020. She said it was a big shift from NYC's influence of minor parties.

Ryan said when she got back to Florida, some people bullied her after they found out her political leanings, so she decided to make a change.

"I'm going to hide in plain sight, because if the wrong people get the names of the right lists, I don't know what that could do for me for getting a job (or) keeping a job," she said.

Even though she continues to vote Democratic, she is now registered as a Republican.

Frustration with the party system

Woman with dark hair and blue shirt sits smiling in front of a blurry bookcase.
The Workmans
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Florida Democratic Party
Nikki Fried is the Chair of Florida's Democratic Party. She said people's growing mistrust of traditional parties and government institutions is contributing to the rise in switching parties.

Florida Democratic Chair Nikki Fried attributes the changes to growing mistrust of traditional parties and government institutions.

“People are frustrated that both parties and their views and how it's been sculptured from both sides are extreme, and so people become independents," she said. "You're finding a lot more of this younger generation who are frustrated with the party system."

A 2023 statewide poll from the Stetson Center for Public Opinion Research found 61% of Floridians felt unfavorable toward the Democratic Party and 54% toward the GOP.

And while both major parties have lost registered voters this year, Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power disagrees with Fried.

"(Fried) can continue and frame it any way she wants," he said. "The fact is, Republicans are adding voters, Democrats are losing voters, and Republicans are winning on the battlefield of ideas.”

Since last year, Florida’s GOP has lost 130,576 registered voters, while Democrats have lost 361,949 and NPAs have lost 325,199, according to data from the Florida Division of Elections.

The state has removed more than 300,000 active and inactive voters. Some of those may be the same people. Meanwhile, Florida gained more than 330,000 new voter registrations in 2025.

A bar graph representing the number of voters removed from rolls in Florida.
Meghan Bowman
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WUSF
More than 300,000 voters, active and inactive, were removed from Florida's registration rolls this year. Data provided by the Florida Division of Elections.

Political analyst Kelly Smith said the parties are successful when they’ve increased turnout in their strongholds—typically urban areas for Democrats and rural regions for Republicans.

"I'm looking forward to seeing what the statewide races are going to look like after Trump, to see if that, if that still remains true,” Smith said.

GOP Chair Evan Power said the state went from blue to red to really red.

But Smith is not convinced Florida is that red.

“I don't anticipate the state legislature flipping back to the Democratic Party," she said.

"However, the statewide races, I think, are still up for grabs. I still think a Democrat could absolutely win a statewide race here in Florida. I think we need a few more election cycles to determine whether the move to a solidly red state is done,” Smith added.

Election night shift

But after Tuesday's election, Fried said that shift is already happening locally.

“The pendulum is definitely swinging towards Democrats, and it's powered by the people-centered politics,” she said. "Democrats saw (Tuesday) night and throughout the entire country, just nationwide, from New Jersey to California, Americans are just tired of the chaos that we've been experiencing for the last 10 months."

The deadline to register or change parties for the midterm primaries is July 20.

Want to join the conversation or share your story? Email Meghan at bowman4@wusf.org.

If you have any questions about state government or the legislative process, you can ask the Your Florida team by clicking here.

This story was produced by WUSF as part of a statewide journalism initiative funded by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

I love getting to know people and covering issues that matter most to our audience. I get to do that every day as WUSF’s community engagement reporter. I focus on Your Florida, a project connecting Floridians with their state government.
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