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The Bucs' playoff hopes, and season, end after a Falcons victory

Black man with a black windbreaker, wearing a black cap and headset, looking to the left with arms on hips as rain falls
Peter Joneleit
/
AP
Bucs coach Todd Bowles watches the action in the rain during the Bucs' 16-14 win over the Carolina Panthers at Raymond James Stadium on Jan. 3, 2026.

The Bucs needed a win or tie by New Orleans at Atlanta to win the NFC South. Instead, the Falcons' 19-17 victory means the Panthers are the division champs, eliminating Tampa Bay after a late-season collapse.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won’t win the NFC South this year, victims of their late-season collapse. Instead, the Carolina Panthers clinched first place on Sunday as both teams watched their division foes on TV in a proxy showdown.

The title was decided when the Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints 19-17, leaving the Panthers, Bucs and Falcons in a three-way tie at 8-9.

A head-to-head-to-head tiebreaker gave the Panthers (3-1) their first division title in a decade. Tampa Bay (2-2) finished second and Atlanta (1-3) third.

Bucs' 2026 opponents

  • Home: Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers and Los Angeles Rams.
  • Road: Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, Baltimore Ravens, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys.

Tampa Bay stayed alive into the final day of the season with a 16-14 home win over the Panthers on Saturday, but the Bucs needed New Orleans to win or tie in Atlanta to claim the division. When the Saints fell, Tampa Bay’s run of four consecutive NFC South titles came to an end.

The Bucs appeared in control of the division early in their 50th anniversary season, opening with victories in six of their first eight games. But they lost seven of their final nine, a stretch that included four straight losses against teams with losing records — New Orleans and Atlanta at home, followed Carolina and Miami on the road.

ALSO READ: He's not longer 'Big Nasty,' but Bucs superfan is still a huge part of team history

Those defeats proved costly in a division where no team finished with a winning record. Despite beating Carolina on Saturday, Tampa Bay was unable to separate itself and ultimately needed help on the season’s last day that never arrived.

The Falcons-Saints game came down to the final minutes. Dee Alford ended a promising Saints drive with an interception he returned 59 yards, putting the Falcons in range for a field goal that gave them a 19-10 lead. New Orleans responded with a touchdown and tried an onside kick with 1:11 remaining that Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts recovered.

Emily Mayfield, wife of Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield, posted images of her husband watching the game to Instagram.

"Watching Baker watch football as a 'fan' is hilarious," she wrote. "Haven't seen him this stressed in a minute."

For Tampa Bay, the focus now turns to the future of fifth-year coach Todd Bowles, whose job security was called into question during the second-half skid. Bowles, who signed a three-year contract extension before the season, has a 35-33 record after serving as defensive coordinator for Bruce Arians from 2019 to 2021

Despite winning the division each year, Bowles has faced criticism for defensive units that underperformed, conservative decision-making and teams that have faded after strong starts without making deep playoff runs.

If Bowles is retained, he could be asked by ownership to make changes on his staff. Throughout the season, the team struggled on special teams, lacked a pass rush and experienced several coverage busts in the secondary that lead to defeats.

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In Bowles' defense, the Bucs opened the season with several key players injured, including receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, tackle Tristan Wirfs, running back Bucky Irving and defensive lineman Calijah Kancey.

Also, with their season complete, the Bucs learned they hold the 15th overall selection in the first round of the NFL draft this April in Pittsburgh.

By winning the division, the Panthers earned a first-round home playoff game, and as the NFC's No. 4 seed will host the Los Angeles Rams (12-5), the No. 5 seed, on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. The Panthers stunned the Rams in Charlotte 31-28 on Nov. 30.

Carolina last won the NFC South in 2015, when Coach Ron Rivera and quarterback Cam Newton led the Panthers to a 15-1 season and a Super Bowl appearance.

For the second time in five years, a team with a losing record will represent the NFC South in the playoffs. The Bucs also won the division with an 8-9 record in 2022. The Panthers became the first team to twice win the division with a losing record: They finished 7-8-1 in 2014.

ALSO READ: How the Bucs can defeat Carolina and still not win the NFC South

"Record doesn’t matter," Panthers safety Nick Scott said Saturday after the loss in Tampa. "You know, in my time, I’ve seen teams that had no business being in the playoffs and knocked somebody off in the first round. So I don’t care how I get in, I just want to get in as somebody who’s gone the distance.

“All I’m looking for is a chance because that’s hard to do. And if we get in, and we’re division winners, we’re deserving of it, period. ... I don’t care what anybody has to say about it. We’re supposed to be there.”

Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.

I’m the online producer for Health News Florida, a collaboration of public radio stations and NPR that delivers news about health care issues.
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