A cold front will move southeast across Florida which should increase the chances for widespread rain showers and pop-up thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal) risk for damaging wind gusts between 40-50 mph and hail up to an inch in diameter both inland and along the First, Space, and Treasure coasts. Even though this ranking is at the lowest end of the severity scale, localized areas may be affected at a more extensive level.
The cold front combined with the sea breeze will create instability making thunderstorms more likely, especially along the coasts.
The panhandle should get widespread rain showers with rumbles of thunder.
North Florida will get pop-up thunderstorms this evening with widespread rain showers overnight. The threat for damaging winds and small hail should ramp up early Tuesday morning.
Central and South Florida will feel the brunt of the storms early Tuesday evening.
The lingering cold front and sea breeze has the potential to cause localized flash flooding along the Space Coast. Anywhere between 3'' to 7'' of rainfall is possible which would make any commute dangerous.
The Treasure Coast may also be at risk for flash flooding since it may receive up to 5'' of rainfall.
The Florida Panhandle and Big Bend could also see up to 5'' in localized areas.
South Florida's rainfall will reside mostly around the Florida Heartland and the Treasure and Gold Coasts. Southwest Florida may only receive between a trace to 0.50'' of rain by Wednesday morning.
Storms should clear up for South Florida by Wednesday morning, but more pop-up thunderstorms are still likely across North and Central Florida.
Since the state is still under a bad drought, this will also increase the chances for flash flooding. This situation is similar to watering a potted plant; if the plant has not been watered in a while, it takes much longer for the water to soak into the soil. Just like a dry plant, it will take more time for larger amounts of rainfall to soak into the ground which will cause more rain to run off into the roads.
As a reminder, never drive through any unknown depths of water. Make sure you are in a sheltered area. The FPREN team of meteorologists will continue to keep everyone updated as the weather system unfolds.
