STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Now, as Democrats finish their convention, former President Trump has been campaigning. He trails Harris in numerous polling averages. On the website FiveThirtyEight, he's down by an average of three points. So how, if at all, does he come back? Trump's longtime pollster John McLaughlin insists Trump doesn't have to.
JOHN MCLAUGHLIN: When you consider where the polls are and how inflated and biased they are against us, we've seen this before. It's better than 2016 and 2020. So we're looking good.
INSKEEP: McLaughlin insists that public polls are skewed against his candidate. Now, you might say, of course Trump's pollster would say that. Our colleague Mara Liasson recently described the Trump camp's optimism as wishful thinking. At the same time, independent experts are unsure if this year's polling properly captures the race. In each of the past two presidential elections, Trump was farther behind at this point in the summer than he is now, and he closed the gap. His defeat in 2020 was closer than the polling.
MCLAUGHLIN: The last two elections were about turnout. There was a big turnout battle. Trump won in 2016 precisely because he brought out 9 million more voters that didn't vote in the 2012 election, you know, flipped 206 counties from Obama to Trump, and it was because of extra voters coming out who don't usually vote. So he brings out new voters that some pollsters may have a hard time finding them, but they're there, and we get them in our polls. There certainly are still polls out there that - you know, whether it's Harvard-Harris or some of these others, they get them in their polls.
INSKEEP: You said you like the Harvard Harris poll, which is a public poll. They do it monthly. We don't have the one for the end of August yet that would show the last few weeks of the presidential campaign, but they did one in late July. And already at that point, they did show a shift from Trump toward Harris, although Trump was still leading. Would you accept that something has happened in the last month or so that's changed the race?
MCLAUGHLIN: Oh, yeah. And by the way, I'm not saying that didn't happen. I was just mentioning that...
INSKEEP: Yeah.
MCLAUGHLIN: ...It's a lot more polarized and less volatile than people have made it.
INSKEEP: Let me ask a few questions going forward here. Nikki Haley, who, as you know, was once one of Trump's presidential rivals, said during the primaries the first party to dump their 80-year-old candidate is going to win. Turned out the Democrats were the first party to do that. What would you have Trump do with that particular dynamic? He's facing a younger candidate who can say, I want to turn the page.
MCLAUGHLIN: Well, first of all, Nikki Haley was not a good prognosticator in the primaries.
INSKEEP: Well, she lost, OK.
MCLAUGHLIN: You know, secondly is, like, the reality of this race is Donald Trump is in great health. You know, he's never drank. He'll get up, give a two-hour speech, and then he'll go fly to another city and give another two-hour speech, and he'll just work all day.
INSKEEP: But he's also 78 and says a lot of things that aren't true. I mean, he kind of, you know...
MCLAUGHLIN: Well, he says a lot of things that are true. And he is given to hyperbole, but he tries to do that to make his point, to get people's attention. And the reality is there's a vast majority of voters who don't feel things in the country are going in the right direction. And she's been there for 3 1/2 years.
INSKEEP: Well, you've said that Trump should be able to beat Harris on the issues. You're not the only ally of former President Trump to say that. That's fairly explicitly not what he's doing. He said out loud, I've been told to be polite to the other person. I'm not going to do it. I'm entitled to personal attacks. He's made a lot of personal attacks. That doesn't really seem to be his theory of the case, to talk in detail about the issues.
MCLAUGHLIN: Well, he does. He doesn't get the coverage. And...
INSKEEP: I mean, he says - I watched the speeches. He says something about immigration but then - it's his greatest hits on immigration - but then he goes on to the other stuff.
MCLAUGHLIN: Most of it - by the way, I mean, here's a man who - they've had him under attack for legal issues for a year that are politically biased, that are politically motivated. They're trying to take away his wealth. They're trying to take away his civil rights that he could run for president. And what you have here is you have a president who goes out - like yesterday, he was giving a speech on national security. And he was giving a speech on - and today, he's talking about the border in Arizona.
INSKEEP: In that speech, which came soon after we spoke yesterday, Trump did talk about migrant crime. He gave anecdotes of specific crimes, although violent crime statistics are down. He talked about the Rolls Royce of border walls and also wandered off topic to accuse his opponents of lying. Also yesterday, news was spreading that Robert F. Kennedy might abandon his independent presidential bid.
MCLAUGHLIN: It probably helps us a little bit. Most of his vote has already been going down because it's more of a two-way race between President Trump and Kamala Harris. You know, it seems to be a very close but very winnable race for President Trump in a two-way race.
INSKEEP: John McLaughlin, it's a pleasure talking with you. Thank you so much.
MCLAUGHLIN: Thanks for the opportunity. I appreciate it.
INSKEEP: He's a longtime pollster for former President Trump. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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