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These down-ballot races could lead to big changes in your state

Tucked at the bottom of the ballot, control of several legislatures is up for grabs in several states this year. Republicans are defending vulnerable majorities in Arizona, New Hampshire and Wisconsin, and Democrats are trying to stay on top in Michigan and Minnesota.

Nearly every legislature is controlled by one party or the other, making it easier to pass laws over the objections of political opponents. Republicans control 28 legislatures. Democrats have 20. There are only two capitols where legislative chambers are split between parties -- Pennsylvania, which has tight margins in both the House and Senate, and Alaska, which is controlled by a multiparty coalition.

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Political parties and other groups are spending big money to try and influence who gets elected to serve under capitol domes around the country.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the main fundraising arm for statehouse Democrats, set a $60 million budget to support legislative races this year. Forward Majority, a group aligned with Democrats, is planning to spend $45 million this cycle. And The States Project, another progressive group, announced a $70 million goal earlier this year.

The Republican State Leadership Committee, the DLCC's GOP counterpart, recently announced an increase of their initial $38 million commitment to $44 million, sounding the alarm on the fundraising gap with Democrats in a memo to donors late last month.

"As Democrats pump money into late television, digital, and canvassing efforts to overwhelm our candidates with false attacks, we must double down on our targeted investments to keep our campaigns competitive through Election Day," the memo states.

Republicans have controlled more legislative chambers since an organized blitz ahead of the 2010 elections, allowing the party to cement control of both statehouse and congressional districts through redistricting in ensuing years.

DLCC President Heather Williams says Democrats have been building back in order to be strongly positioned in the 2030 redistricting cycle when they could be in position to draw voting maps.

"We certainly look at the election in front of us and are identifying where the opportunities are. But we are also responsible for crafting this long-term strategy to win power in the states over the decade," Williams says.
Republicans have veto-proof supermajorities in 20 states, allowing them to override governors' bill vetoes. Democrats have veto-proof majorities in nine states.

Democrats are targeting supermajorities North Carolina and Kansas, where they think they can break Republican supermajorities this year.

Here's a look at some of the legislatures where partisan control hangs in the balance this year.

Copyright 2024 NPR

Ryland Barton
Ryland Barton is a senior editor for the States Team on NPR’s National Desk. Based in Louisville, he works with reporters across the country covering state government policy and politics.
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