The Tampa Bay region is growing, but it's not growing more affordable.
That's according to data presented during the 2026 State of the Region community luncheon on Tuesday.
The ninth annual event marked the release of two complementary economic benchmarks — the E-Insights Report and the Regional Competitiveness Summary Report — by the University of South Florida Muma College of Business and the Tampa Bay Partnership.
Together, their findings act as a scorecard for the region on issues ranging from growth and the economy to education and transportation.
Key findings
Tampa Bay, defined by researchers as an eight-county region stretching from Citrus to Sarasota counties, remained a prime destination for new residents nationally.
Compared to 19 other U.S. metro areas, Tampa Bay had the second-highest net migration rate, at 2.09%, behind Orlando. This is a drop in the rankings from first place in 2025, according to the Regional Competitiveness Report.
The Tampa Bay region also saw gains in talent acquisition, like higher-education rates and labor force participation, and civic quality indicators, which include health, safety and affordability measures.
"We saw modest improvements from an affordability standpoint. Affordability continues to be a challenge in the region," Tampa Bay Partnership President and CEO Bemetra Simmons said.
Growing unaffordable
While average wages increased roughly 5% regionally and about 3% among service workers, the Tampa Bay region didn't improve in the relative rankings.
The same is true for median household income, which increased to $76,741 in the Tampa Bay region, but did not improve its last-place ranking from 2025.
Despite these nominal gains in income, growing expenses are leaving many households worse off.
The 2026 E-Insights Report found that the percentage of cost-burdened renters in the region, at 57%, is among the highest in the nation.
"This is a red flag. Wage growth is not keeping pace with rent, threatening quality of life for our population," USF business professor Manish Agrawal said during the Feb. 17 presentation.
This trend is worsened by the sharp decline in affordable housing supply, defined as units where monthly costs are below $1,500, from 79% in 2015 to about 48% in 2024.
Josh Wright, the vice president of labor analytics company Lightcast, said Tampa is not the first mid-size metro to experience rapid growth.
"If you look at where Atlanta or Charlotte was a number of years ago ... [they] had to figure out what to do with more growth ... And so you start to see, I think there are ... always things to learn from other places," Wright said.
He said there's at least one lesson Tampa can learn: Be sure infrastructure and affordability keep pace with the new growth.
Gabriella Paul covers the stories of people living paycheck to paycheck in the greater Tampa Bay region for WUSF. Here’s how you can share your story with her.
