More than a third of the way into the growing season, Florida’s citrus industry is looking at projections of a harvest that would be down slightly from the historic lows of the 2024-2025 crop.
In its first report about the 2025-2026 season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture on Monday forecast that Florida will produce 12 million boxes of oranges, down from 12.2 million during the 2024-2025 season. The forecast also estimated Florida will produce 1.2 million boxes of grapefruit, down from 1.3 million in 2024-2025.
Specialty crops, which include tangerines and tangelos are set to match the 400,000 boxes produced last season, while lemon production is forecast to grow from 670,000 boxes to 700,000 boxes.
Florida Citrus Mutual Executive Vice President and CEO Matt Joyner acknowledged the estimate was “lower than we would like.” But he added there is an increased confidence in the industry as “growers are reporting healthier trees and larger fruit.”
“Innovative treatments, therapies and disease-tolerant trees are making a real difference,” Joyner said in a prepared statement. “With more time and good weather, we’re optimistic we’ll continue to see signs of hope for the future of Florida’s signature crop.”
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The U.S. Department of Agriculture typically provides monthly updates during the growing season. But the process was affected this season because of the federal government shutdown in the fall. Only two additional reports are planned for this season, which will end in July.
The 2024-2025 harvest was the lowest in more than 100 years, the result of recent hurricanes, decades of deadly citrus greening disease and development on what had been citrus groves.
Of the 12 million 90-pound boxes of oranges forecast this season, 7.5 million boxes are expected to be Valencia oranges. Of the 1.2 million boxes of grapefruit, 1.1 million would be of the red variety.
In 1998, when the industry was at its peak, Florida produced 244 million boxes of oranges and 50 million boxes of grapefruit.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture numbers released Monday were slightly higher than what the Florida Citrus Commission used in October as it approved a spending plan for the current fiscal year.
The commission’s $22.8 million budget also anticipates drawing what is known as “box tax” revenue from 71.7 million boxes of imported processed oranges and 600,000 imported grapefruit.
The commission’s budget includes $10 million for marketing and $2.65 million for research from the state budget.
Legislators included $124.5 million for the industry in the state budget for this fiscal year, which began July 1. That included $100 million for new disease-resistant trees, grove management, therapeutic tools and rehabilitating existing trees.
Florida growers are also expected to benefit this season from a $30 million fresh fruit purchase in November by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The food, half oranges, one-third grapefruit and the rest mandarins, is to be distributed to food banks and nutrition assistance programs.
