Let’s start with the math. Yes, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – losers of four straight and seven of eight – can clinch the NFC South with a schedule-closing win over the first-place Carolina Panthers.
The NFL schedule-makers certainly anticipated that winner-take-all scenario when flexing the kickoff to 4:30 p.m. Saturday on national television.
But next to that expectation was a tiny asterisk that grew into a Leviathan on Monday night, when the Atlanta Falcons upset the Los Angeles Rams.
Now, even if the Bucs win, their playoff hopes hinge on Sunday’s 1 p.m. contest between the Falcons and New Orleans Saints. An Atlanta victory at home gives Carolina the postseason nod no matter what happens at Raymond James Stadium the day before.
Huh? Blame the NFL’s Rube Goldberg-esque tiebreaker system.
With Bucs and Falcons victories, all three teams would finish at 8-9 atop the NFC South. In that case, combined head-to-head records are compared, and the best winning percentage moves on. So, Carolina would win the division with a 3-1 record, with Tampa Bay at 2-2 and Atlanta at 1-3.
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Of course, a Carolina sweep over Tampa Bay makes things a lot simpler. The Panthers would win the division with a 9-8 record.
“This is our last chance and it’s blatantly obvious,” quarterback Baker Mayfield said. “There are no more regular-season games on the schedule.”
Interestingly, the Saints and Falcons, both eliminated from the postseason, are playing better than Tampa Bay and Carolina. The Saints, 6-10, are on a four-game winning streak that includes victories over the Bucs and Panthers. The Falcons have taken three straight, including a triumph over the Bucs and Monday’s shocker over the Rams.
Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has not shown improvement.
A division title would be the Bucs’ fifth straight, but their second with a losing record under fourth-year coach Todd Bowles. And it would take a major upset to win a wild-card game at home against one of the superior NFC West teams.
Bowles, who many observers say is in jeopardy of losing his job, has harped on accountability. Mayfield mentioned it earlier in the season, but the team is 0-8 when he has thrown an interception.
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Players have been visibly frustrated on the sideline. During Sunday’s 27-20 loss to the Dolphins, running back Bucky Irving was upset with the offensive linemen, and injured Pro Bowl left tackle Tristan Wirfs stepped in to calm the situation.
Veterans Mike Evans and Lavonte David addressed the team after the game.
“Attack the week, go out there and be the most physical team, most disciplined team,” Evans said. “I mean, we’re super familiar with the Panthers.”
It might take more than that. In a Monday morning assessment of the Bucs, The Associated Press was harsh but honest:
What’s working: Nothing. Mayfield is turning the ball over too much. The defense can’t tackle, doesn’t pressure the quarterback and has too many breakdowns that allow big plays. Special teams usually screws up at least once a week.
What needs help: Everything. The Bucs are struggling in every area, including coaching. Players keep repeating the same mistakes, especially the ones Bowles has referenced a few times without mentioning names. Even worse, as Evans noted, several players lacked urgency against the Dolphins.
