The next U.S. Census is scheduled to take place in 2030. But it could take place much sooner if President Donald Trump gets his way.
The Trump administration is considering a mid-decade census that would exclude millions of people living in the country without legal status.
Historically, the census counts all residents living in the country on Census Day, regardless of their immigration status. That includes undocumented immigrants.
While there have been prior attempts to exclude undocumented immigrants from the census count for apportionment, they’ve faced legal challenges.
During his first term as president in 2020, Donald Trump issued an executive memorandum to exclude undocumented immigrants from that year’s census. But lawsuits were filed, and a federal three-judge panel ruled the memorandum violated The Census Act. The case was ultimately dismissed, and the memorandum was rescinded when President Joe Biden took office.
In late July in Bradenton, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told reporters he supports a mid-decade census, saying the state is “malapportioned” because of population shifts that have occurred since the 2020 census.
“So I do think it would be appropriate to do a redistricting here in the mid-decade,” he said.
The idea comes as Republican lawmakers in states like Florida and Texas want to redraw congressional maps and keep the GOP in control of Congress in 2026.
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In July, Florida’s Supreme Court upheld the state’s current congressional redistricting map, rejecting a challenge over the elimination of a majority-Black district in North Florida that was pushed by DeSantis.
The debate has some people asking: “What’s the difference between redistricting and reapportionment?”
Sharon Austin, a professor of political science at the University of Florida, joined host Matthew Peddie on "The Florida Roundup" on Friday to address the issue.
Here’s how she breaks it down
Redistricting speaks to how population shifts require state legislatures every decade to look at their congressional mapping through very specific rules that need to be followed.
“Some of those rules include they have to be contiguous, meaning they you can't just put together a lot of different neighborhoods that aren't connected to each other, that aren't close to each other, they can't have any type of an unusual shape. So they're very strict rules,” Austin said.
She cites a case called Thornburg v. Gingles from 1986 that set the table for how redistricting should happen so that it does not intentionally discriminate, especially when it comes to race and ethnicity.
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Reapportionment is the process of reallocating seats in a legislative body, based on population changes determined by the decennial census, a population and housing count conducted every 10 years in the United States and mandated by the U.S. Constitution.
“A simple way of explaining it is that redistricting is like a tongue twister. It's like putting together the way that a district is supposed to shape and put together these districts. But reapportionment, that process results from the census, and it determines how many seats each state gets in the House of Representatives.”
Austin said despite the governor’s belief that the state is malapportioned, we are still five years out from the next census.
“[Reapportionment] is based on changes in population that are determined by the census that takes place at the beginning of every 10 years. So to answer that question, no, the number of seats is largely allocated on the basis of population shifts, on the basis of this population recorded in the census.”
Other concerns, questions about reapportionment and restricting
Are prisoners or formerly incarcerated people who are not legally allowed to vote counted?
Yes to both, Austin said. Even if a prisoner or formerly incarcerated person with a felony on their record cannot vote, they are included in population counts for the purposes of reapportionment.
Could a mid-decade census realistically take place before 2030?
President Donald Trump has posted on social media, saying he's instructed the Department of Commerce to start working on a new census.
Austin said that’s “unlikely” to happen.
“It is something that makes sense because of population shifts, but I think it probably would not happen because people are really just usually in opposition to change, and they would be so accustomed to having the census occur at the beginning of every decade, Austin said.
“I think a lot of people would automatically be extremely suspicious if there was a suggestion that it take place any time before that. So it's something that is trending on social media because President Trump is suggesting that. But I doubt seriously that that would happen.”
Florida's House Speaker Daniel Perez said he's forming a select committee on congressional redistricting. Is that needed?
Austin, who has served as an expert witness on several voting rights cases, and usually whenever there is redistricting, said whenever that process takes place, there is usually a lot of controversy.
“Typically a lot of the controversy involves whether or not people of color, namely African Americans and Latinos, get adequate representation. And so that is something that has always been a case. And so possibly, there is a need for a task force to look at the process and to make sure that that process is being carried out fairly.”
This story was compiled from interviews conducted by Matthew Peddie for "The Florida Roundup."
