The El Niño climate pattern we're in right now is causing ocean temperatures to rise, which could intensify hurricanes; however, there’s some good news.
Nick Shay, a professor of ocean sciences at the University of Miami, said El Niño is also bringing increased wind shear into the atmosphere, which weakens storms, as it did for Tropical Storm Bertha last week.
"More shear is bad for hurricanes and good for the public,” he said.
There's also dusty Saharan air coming in from Africa helping to tamp down tropical activity.
"It's not great to breathe, but it's one of those things that affects tropical storms. Storms like warm, moist air,” Shay said.
But, Shay said, it's hard to know if the Saharan dust will last us through the peak of hurricane season, which falls on Sept. 10.
Although national forecasters predict fewer storms than average this year, Shay offered a reminder: "It only takes one in the wrong place."
And when a storm does form in the Gulf, Shay’s team will investigate what's going on underneath it.
They're going to deploy floats, drifters, and disposable instruments to better understand a hurricane's relationship with air, heat and moisture.
"The whole idea about going out and collecting quality data is to make sure that that type of data gets into the models, so we can improve the forecast for both John and Jane Q. Public,” he said.
The upcoming experiment is through the Office of Naval Research, and the scientists plan to publish their findings.
