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Florida's forecast: first winterlike cold blast of the season arrives this week

A weak cold front pushed through the state on Saturday afternoon. It mainly brought clouds as it moved south and, toward the end of the weekend, ushered in drier air across the Panhandle and Central Florida. Across much of the state, weather remained calm over the weekend, which helped relief efforts after a very active few weeks in parts of Florida. Heavy rainfall caused flooding, with lakes and rivers rising and overflowing their banks.

This week, winds will be variable, especially early in the week. Temperatures across Florida will remain in the low to mid-80s Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, especially in Central Florida, while South Florida will warm into the mid to upper 80s Wednesday. We expect mostly calm weather across much of Florida, with a slight chance of afternoon showers, mainly across interior portions of the state on Tuesday and higher chances for rain midweek as the front pushes over Lake Okeechobee and South Florida.

Colder air is on the way as a low-pressure system moves southward from the northern Plains. This system will be followed by a very cold air mass, bringing temperatures into the 50s across South Florida, the upper 40s across Central Florida, and the upper 30s and low 40s across North Florida and the Panhandle by Friday morning, and continuing throughout the weekend.

The cold front arrives, and temperatures will be much cooler this weekend with dry air also taking over.

North Florida

Parts of the Panhandle could potentially experience frost in the morning. Temperatures will be well below average next weekend, with some interior areas north of I-10 potentially dropping into the 30s overnight. For reference, Tallahassee last recorded a low below 40°F on April 21, 2026. The temperature last dropped below 38°F on March 20, 2026. In Pensacola, the temperature last reached 38°F on March 18, 2026.

Temperatures across North Florida will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s on Tuesday, with slightly warmer conditions expected on Wednesday. Temperatures will begin to drop Thursday night into Friday morning. The cold front is expected to push through Thursday afternoon, with highs reaching the low 70s before temperatures quickly fall into the low to mid-40s overnight into Friday morning. Gainesville's lowest forecast temperatures will likely occur Saturday and Sunday mornings, with lows potentially dropping to around 41°F on both days. Gainesville last recorded a low temperature of 40°F or below on March 20, 2026.

Jacksonville's low temperature is forecast to reach 41°F on Saturday morning, with similar temperatures expected Sunday morning. Jacksonville last recorded a low of 40°F or below on March 18, 2026. Thursday could also bring gusty northwesterly winds up to 30 mph.

This front is not expected to bring much rain as it moves across North Florida. However, with drier air moving in and winds strengthening, elevated fire danger could develop Thursday and Friday across parts of the state. Relative humidity will be extremely low, and strong winds could cause any developing fires to spread rapidly.

Central Florida

Patchy fog will develop over Central Florida over the next few nights. Expect a few passing showers on Wednesday as the front approaches, but overall, clouds will linger Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain will cease, and clouds will begin to clear Thursday night into Friday morning. Temperatures will start to drop Friday morning, with readings in the upper 50s at the start of the day

As skies clear on Friday, temperatures will remain cool. Friday highs will reach the mid-to-upper 60s. By evening, clear skies will let heat accumulated during the day escape quickly, causing temperatures to fall into the 40s across the I-4 corridor. In Orlando, the low should be around 47°F Saturday morning, while areas closer to Tampa Bay will stay near 50°F.
Orlando last recorded below-50°F temperatures on March 18, 2026. The Tampa Bay area last saw temperatures below 50°F on March 18, 2026.

South Florida

The week has started mainly dry across South Florida, but rain chances will increase slightly, especially on Wednesday across the Everglades and interior portions of Palm Beach, Broward, Miami-Dade, and Collier counties. Wednesday will bring the highest chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm, mainly in the afternoon. This will be in response to the approaching cold front, which will increase instability across the region. Temperatures will also drop, though the cooler conditions will be shorter-lived than in other parts of the state.

Temperatures across South Florida could fall into the mid-to-upper 50s from Friday night through Sunday morning. By early next week, temperatures will begin rebounding, with morning lows returning to the upper 60s. As the front pushes through, expect winds to increase and shift mainly from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph on Thursday and Friday.

Southwest Florida will be slightly cooler, with temperatures potentially dropping into the low 50s Saturday night into Sunday morning. For reference, Naples last recorded a2°F or below on April 4, 2021. The last time the minimum temperature reached 52°F or below was March 18, 2026.

Many South Floridians, especially across Southeast Florida, can open their windows as humidity levels decrease. A couple of chilly mornings are expected over the weekend, with temperatures potentially dropping into the upper 50s. For Miami, the low temperature is forecast to drop to 60°F. However, temperatures will be cooler inland, from Kendall northward through Coral Springs. Some suburban locations could drop into the upper 50s. Miami last recorded a low of 60°F (or less) on March 22, 2026.

Irene Sans is an Emmy-winning, AMS-certified meteorologist (CBM, CDM) with more than 15 years of experience covering severe weather and climate stories across the U.S. and Latin America. A bilingual communicator and digital leader, she has delivered forecasts and science content for TV, radio, social media, and top weather platforms including Weather & Radar, WFTV, Telemundo, and The Weather Company. She has also served as Deputy State Meteorologist for Florida and consulted internationally on tropical forecasting and climate communications.
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