The season's 13th tropical depression developed late Wednesday evening, and is located about 900 miles east of the Leeward Islands this morning.
Meanwhile, a strong tropical wave south of Jamaica is showing signs of organization and it is likely to become a depression within a day or so.
Florida Public Radio Emergency Network Meteorologist Ray Hawthorne is following the depression and said slow development is possible into the weekend as it moves near the Caribbean.
"The depression is moving fast and could be near Hispaniola, Cuba, and the Bahamas by Sunday. There may be effects on the Florida peninsula early next week, but its possible interaction with land make that portion of the forecast unclear at this time," he said.
As of mid-morning Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said Tropical Depression 13 was moving west-northwest near 21 mph with top sustained winds near 35 mph. The latest forecast calls for the depression to reach tropical storm status either late Thursday or early Friday, and then track near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands Friday evening.
Additional strengthening is possible this weekend, but the Hurricane Center said nearby dry air and possible interaction with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, or Cuba are factors causing the intensity forecast to be of low confidence.
The forecast track takes the system somewhere between Cuba, South Florida, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday and Monday night as a strong tropical storm.
Forecasters say there could be rainfall and wind impacts over these areas and interests in these areas should continue to monitor the system's progress this weekend.
FPREN Meteorologist Megan Borowski said closer to home, a more imminent concern is the ongoing afternoon thunderstorms that have been stronger than normal.
“There’s an unseasonably strong upper level disturbance to our west. Southwesterly winds are transporting extra moisture and energy from the system across Florida,” she said.
“And so the chance for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes from the strongest cells will continue through at least Thursday, especially along central and eastern sections of the peninsula.”
Forecasters are watching the strong tropical wave (called "97L" by meteorologists), which is moving through the Caribbean this week and appears better organized on satellite imagery.
The Hurricane Center said it has a high chance of developing into a depression between now and the weekend as it moves toward the western Caribbean, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Forecast models have been inconsistent regarding the future path and strength of 97L.
The models that forecast little or no development take 97L across the Yucatan or Central America, with some slow development over the western Gulf of Mexico next week. However, the models that show more rapid development forecast the developing system to move northward into the central Gulf of Mexico next week.
