Tuesday is primary election day in Florida. Voters will have their say on their next governor, U.S. Senator, members of Congress and a whole host of local officials.
But what is the mood of the electorate? WUSF's Steve Newborn talked with Frank Orlando, a political science professor at Saint Leo University, about what might be different this year.
We've been hearing a lot about the "sour" mood of the electorate. What are you hearing out there? Is there anything that really kind of piques your interest that might be different this time around than what we've been seeing maybe in past elections?
I agree that the electorate's probably not super happy coming into the midterms, but to be honest, electorates usually aren't happy going into midterms. We've seen this pattern for most of the the 21st century and into the 20th century, of the incumbent party and the presidency having a difficult time during midterms.
"This year, perhaps in particular, because of malaise over gas prices, over things like inflation eating into any wage growth people have had. These are things that people don't like, and the out party can exploit them."St. Leo University political scientist Frank Orlando
This year, perhaps in particular, because of malaise over gas prices, over things like inflation eating into any wage growth people have had. These are things that people don't like, and the out party can exploit them.
And we think that overall, nationally, this is going to be a year where Republicans are probably going to be playing defense. The national mood, in terms of you know the generic ballot and things like this, seems to point towards a Democratic plus 6 or plus 7 environment, compared to where it's been, but we also have to look at that in terms of Florida and how Florida is different than the rest of the country.
If you look at a lot of other states, for example, Michigan or Georgia or North Carolina, President Trump's approval rating is underwater. Here, in Florida, he's kind of treading water, right? I think in the most recent average of all the approval polls, he's plus 2, which is different than what we see in a lot of other places. And so, Florida, although we don't think it's going to be the romp that it was in 2024, might be a little bit less susceptible to this Democratic surge than we see in other places.
"Florida, although we don't think it's going to be the romp that it was in 2024, might be a little bit less susceptible to this Democratic surge than we see in other places."St. Leo University political scientist Frank Orlando
So in essence, President Trump has coattails here that somebody like Ashley Moody or Byron Donalds — if they get elected, would grab onto very tightly, right?
Yeah, it's interesting looking at different states, looking at different races. I am originally from Michigan and visited over the summer in a little bit of time off, and I was able to watch some advertisements there, and you've got Republicans in districts that voted for Trump and a state that voted for Trump. The "T" word is never mentioned. There's no pictures with Donald Trump. I don't think that's going to be the case for some of the races that we see, in the Senate race, and the gubernatorial race that we see coming up this fall. Maybe not laying on as thick as it has been in the past, but it's definitely not the big negative here that it is in other places.
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So Byron Donalds used the Trump endorsement to be able to really put his stamp on the Republican primary. But I do think, conversely, someone like David Jolly is going to do the best he can to link Donalds' to the unpopular aspects of the Trump presidency in his bid to try to secure the Democratic voters, to try to convince them that he is a tried and true Democrat, but also to link back to people like him, who are perhaps former Republicans that don't like President Trump, and so Trump isn't a bad word in Florida. Might even have some coattails in certain places, but probably isn't the overwhelming electoral benefit that he was even as recently as two years ago.
It's interesting you mentioned going back to Michigan. So we're seeing in a lot of maybe the northern, more liberal states, that kind of Democratic Socialist tilt, but not here, right? Do you think it's going to have much pull on the progressive wing of the Democrats here?
I don't. I've talked even with Democratic practitioners in the state, people that work for you know the Democratic Party that work on the campaigns, they don't see as much of a groundswell of support. And I think part of that is just the makeup of the Democratic electorate in Florida. That makeup is different than in Michigan or New York. If Democrats are going to succeed in Florida, they need to run up the margins with African American voters, and they need to do really well with Latino voters. That's not usually the recipe that has worked for DSA candidates, as we've seen, and if we look at the (Michigan) (Abdul) El Sayed primary, he did really well with high-education, white liberal voters. He did not do very well in places like Detroit and Flint, which are heavily African American. And so in places like North Florida, with with strong African American presence, I don't think DSA candidates are very popular.
"If Democrats are going to succeed in Florida, they need to run up the margins with African American voters, and they need to do really well with Latino voters."
And also, if we look at Democratic power in South Florida, even among possible Latino voters, we know that the word "socialist" is not the word you want to use, and so Florida is a tough place for the DSA to take root. Obviously, in places like Gainesville and in college towns, you're going to see this, but demographically, probably not a strong place for the DSA. Democrats are going to have to run a different playbook here, and we see what they're trying.
So the question in a lot of Democrats' minds: you have a middle of the road candidate like David Jolly running for governor. Does he have enough pull to pull in those more progressive voters from the Democratic left, or is he going to reach for the great center out there?
I think very unfortunately, (Orange County Mayor and candidate) Jerry Demings leaving the race with health concerns, meant that he didn't really have to fight a very tough primary. Demings was probably the only person that could have given him a tough battle. And when that ended, he didn't really need to worry about that. And so, in some ways, he didn't need to stake out any claims there, and it gives him kind of free rein to do what he needs in in the general election. But on the other hand, it could be a negative in the fact that he didn't really have to test these messages to progressive voters or try to win them over, and so we're talking about like the enthusiasm gap. Are progressive voters going to be enthusiastic to vote for David Jolly? I'm not sure.
"The Democratic Party in Florida has tried the ex-Republican running statewide in the past. It has not yet worked, but maybe this time it will. But the thing that David Jolly needs to hang his hat on is this is about as good of a year as he's going to have to run in an open seat against a Republican candidate that, despite being endorsed by Donald Trump still isn't really cracking 50% in the primary polls, let alone the general election polls."
As we know, the Democratic Party in Florida has tried the ex-Republican running statewide in the past. It has not yet worked, but maybe this time it will. But the thing that David Jolly needs to hang his hat on is this is about as good of a year as he's going to have to run in an open seat against a Republican candidate that, despite being endorsed by Donald Trump still isn't really cracking 50% in the primary polls, let alone the general election polls. So not exactly a juggernaut of a candidate.
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If it's going to happen, this is the year for it to happen. He still has ground to make up, but a lot of it is going to turn on what happens nationally over the next few months, right? What happens with inflation? What happens with Iran? What happens with some of these other things? And if we see status quo, despite Jolly running a great campaign, I mean, we think about where the state was in 2024. You know, you got to make up about 15 points, right? And so, even in a wave-type year, you need something extraordinary, right?
Donald Trump is being a little bit complicit in terms of the fact that people aren't super happy with the direction of the country. But Donalds, if he doesn't run a good campaign, if things emerge during the campaign that make him a damaged candidate, could also help. You know, sometimes you can run a great campaign, and Jolly's going to have to think about how do I energize progressives while keeping centrists. But sometimes you need a lot of luck in a state like Texas or a state like Florida, where you've got a lot of ground to make up.
The fact that Donalds is Black and would become the first Black governor of Florida, do you think he's going to siphon off maybe a significant portion of the Democrats' most reliable demographic?
I would say we haven't necessarily seen Black Republicans overperform among Black voters in general elections in a variety of different states. Let's say John James in Michigan, who ran as a Black Republican, and people thought, well, maybe he'll be able to to siphon off votes in Detroit and Flint - he was just as unpopular in those places as a white Republican.
I think the thing that maybe works against Donalds here is where he's from in the state, and his base of support is not a large African American area, and so he hasn't really had to make overtures to those voters. And quite frankly, that's the kind of thing I'll see it when I believe it.
"... in a midterm election, we know voter turnout is lower, and we know sometimes African-American turnout is lower in a non-presidential year. Does David Jolly have enough juice with those voters to get them to turn out to vote."
I think the bigger question is, can David Jolly energize those voters to vote? Trump will get you so far in the fact that people just don't like him and want to vote against him. But in a midterm election, we know voter turnout is lower, and we know sometimes African-American turnout is lower in a non-presidential year. Does David Jolly have enough juice with those voters to get them to turn out to vote? Because I don't see Donald's doing a superb job, or, quite honestly, Donald Trump did by Republican standards, a decent job among African American voters. I don't see him really improving too much on on what Trump was able to do.
Any final thoughts you have on this primary election, the mood of the electorate, the general wave that might be coming?
"If we see high turnout, it might be a sign that there's some really latent energy there that could be picked up during the general."
I think the thing that I'm going to be most interested in is turnout, both Republicans and Democrats. Democrats, I think, were expecting a high primary turnout when they were going to have a competitive gubernatorial primary. With that not being really the case anymore, and quite frankly, the same thing for Republicans, who's going to turn out to vote? Which party shows any excitement or momentum?. That's going to be what's interesting to me. If we see high turnout, it might be a sign that there's some really latent energy there that could be picked up during the general.
