Depends. Whom do you believe?
The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9 poll out today shows that 6 percent lead for Romney in Florida. It's consistent with earier polls by the same group, Mason-Dixon.
But other polls have the race in Florida tied or Obama slightly ahead. Nate Silver of the New York Times has Romey ahead by a tiny .6 percent in its polling average. (see below)
Both Obama and Romney are in Florida this week -- another sign they see the Florida race as close.
Florida
| FIVETHIRTYEIGHT PROJECTIONS | DEM | REP | MARGIN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polling average | 47.5 | 48.1 | Romney +0.6 |
| Adjusted polling average | 47.7 | 47.7 | Tie |
| State fundamentals | 45.6 | 49.0 | Romney +3.4 |
| Now-cast | 47.5 | 47.8 | Romney +0.3 |
| Projected vote share ±3.0 | 49.5 | 49.9 | Romney +0.4 |
| Chance of winning | 45% | 55% |
