The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were reeling after a 6-2 start last season. But a Monday night win at Atlanta in December would have kept them in position to secure a fifth straight NFC South title.
Then came third-and-28.
The Bucs failed to stop the Falcons, who converted on the next play and went on to kick a walk-off field goal.
A Tampa Bay victory would have made the Bucs 8-6 with three games remaining. Instead, the Bucs finished 8-9 and were forced to wait out a Week 18 tiebreaker mess that didn't go their way.
The collapse left Tampa Bay wondering what went wrong and head coach Todd Bowles on the proverbial hot seat.
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Bowles kept his job and responded by firing roughly five assistants while two others retired.
Then came more blows: Wide receiver Mike Evans, the face of the franchise for a decade, was off to San Francisco as a free agent. Longtime defensive staple Lavonte David retired.
When training camp opened, there were more questions. Run-stopper Vita Vea and quarterback Baker Mayfield were unhappy with their contracts.
But as camp wound down, the picture began to change. The Bucs re-signed Vea. Then they made Mayfield the highest-paid player in franchise history with a three-year, $165 million extension.
The draft brought Rueben Bain and Josaih Trotter, who look to be the missing pieces for what has been an anemic pass rush since Tampa Bay won the 2021 Super Bowl.
Now, as Tampa Bay heads to Cincinnati for Sunday's season opener, the mood is considerably different.
"The improvements are everywhere, from the culture to the depth up front," Mayfield said.
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He also knows what must change. The Bucs have gotten off to strong starts in recent seasons, only to hit stretches when things unraveled. Consistency, starting with himself, has to be the standard this year.
"I want us to finish the season the right way," Mayfield said. "We've had strong starts and midseason lulls. We need to put everything together and be more consistent."
Offensive changes
It’s a make-or-break for Bowles in Tampa Bay. The pressure is on to not only get back to the playoffs after missing for the first time in five seasons, but to advance.
A happy, healthy Mayfield will help, but he’s going on his fourth offensive coordinator in four seasons. This time, it’s Zac Robinson, who spent five years on Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams staff before spending two years as offensive coordinator for division foe Atlanta.
“I think Zac learned a lot from going against Todd Bowles' defense twice a year,” Mayfield said. “You have to have answers for everything. That became a daily emphasis during training camp and the offseason.
“You never want to line up and think, ‘This play isn't going to work.’ You want the ability to get out of it, check into something else, and make your guys feel confident and empowered. Zac does a great job with that.”
Protecting the investment
An offensive line that didn’t have the five starters play a snap together in 2025 is among the best in the league when healthy. Two-time All-Pro Tristan Wirfs protects Mayfield’s blind side. Right tackle Luke Goedeke and center Graham Barton are dependable. Left guard Ben Bredeson adds stability and right guard Cody Mauch is back from a knee injury.
Bain’s reign begins
The Bucs’ defensive front hasn’t looked this strong in several seasons.
Bain has been quite impressive. His work ethic and performance in practices, joint practices and the second preseason game heightened expectations. He has shown flashes that he can be a game-wrecker who will create nightmare matchups for opponents.
The front’s upgrades also include free agents Al-Quadin Muhammad (11 sacks with Detroit in 2025) and A’Shawn Robinson (Carolina). Calijah Kancey returns from injury to bolster the interior with Vea.
YaYa Diaby (7 sacks in 2025) returns on the edge. David Walker, who missed last season because of injury, had a strong camp.
Will they miss Mike?
Despite the departure of Evans, the receiving group is deep and talented. Veteran Chris Godwin Jr. leads a young group that features 2025 first-round pick Emeka Egbuka, second-year pros Tez Johnson and Kameron Johnson, rookie Ted Hurst III and promising third-year pro Jalen McMillan.
Godwin had 50 catches for 576 yards and five touchdowns in seven games with Mayfield in 2024 before a devastating ankle injury ended his season. He played nine games last season and had just 33 receptions. But Godwin is healthier. If he regains the connection he had with Mayfield in 2024, he can post big numbers.
"Yeah, he's a total stud, human being, football player,” Robinson said of Godwin. “He means a lot to this organization clearly from his career here and his training camp was impressive.”
Corner weakness
The cornerback group is a concern following the departure of Jamel Dean (free agency, Steelers) and an inconsistent season from Zyon McCollum. Second-year pro Jacob Parrish replaces Dean, and the Bucs need McCollum to play better. Much was expected from Benjamin Morrison, a second-round pick in 2025 who has been slowed by injuries. A rookie to follow is Keionte Scott, drafted out of the University of Miami, as the nickel slot.
Best free agent
General manager Jason Licht didn’t make major splashes, but the most important addition isn’t the flashiest. The Bucs didn't lure inside linebacker Alex Anzalone to sell jerseys or generate headlines. They signed him because experienced linebackers who can diagnose plays, get the defense aligned and make tackles are valuable. The veteran arrives with a decade of NFL experience and immediately gives Tampa Bay a stabilizing presence in the middle of its defense after the retirement of David.
Most talented rookie
Bain arrived with the highest profile, fills one of the league's premium positions and made the 53-man roster as part of what looks to be a deep edge-rushing rotation alongside Diaby, Anthony Nelson and others. If Bain develops as projected, Tampa Bay could have added a long-term building block to its pass rush.
Training camp darling
Every summer produces a player who refuses to stay anonymous. This year, that player may have been Trotter. Draft status suggested a developmental project. Training camp suggested something more. Even with Bain’s dazzling pass-rush technique, the linebacker out of Missouri is the rookie everyone was talking about.
Other fresh faces
Kenny Gainwell – Free agent (Pittsburgh) with elite receiving skills who’ll pair in backfield with Bucky Irving.
Ted Hurst III – At 6-foot-3, 195 pounds with 4.4 speed, the rookie receiver creates matchup problems for opposing secondaries.
Rakeem Nunez-Roches – Super Bowl LV starter returns to Tampa Bay after three years with the Giants to add depth at nose tackle.
Jalon Daniels – Undrafted rookie beat out veteran Jake Browning for QB2 position.
If the season goes right
Mayfield remains healthy behind one of the NFC's better offensive lines. The young receivers continue to develop around Godwin. The defensive front creates pressure without excessive blitzing. The rookies contribute immediately instead of merely learning. The result is another division title and a legitimate playoff run.
If the season goes wrong
The secondary proves thinner than expected. Injuries expose a lack of veteran depth in key spots. The young players who won roster battles are forced into larger roles before they're ready. Close games begin tilting the other direction. And that could mean a head coaching change in January.
Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.
