Once again, a summer wave of COVID-19 is spiking across the country and in Florida.
According to the Department of Health, Orange County reported the third-highest case totals in the state at the end of July, just before kids returned to the classroom.
"We've seen generally two COVID bumps during the year. We usually get our winter bump, which tends to be a little bit larger than what we see as the summer bump, and so far, that's what we're seeing right now," said Cindy Prins, an epidemiologist from the University of Central Florida.
What is different is the level of those with updated COVID vaccines, which is low. State data show that 3,200 kids 5-11 years of age received either a vaccine or a booster so far this year. Those numbers are on track to be less than years before: 19,600 in 2024 and 37,700 in 2023, and 289,000 in 2022.
With kids back in the classroom this week, and college kids returning to universities next week, it's hard to predict if the numbers will continue to increase, Prins said.
State data shows that a spike occurred after school was in session in 2023, but cases lowered between July and August last year. Prins said while it's hard to say how likely another spike is, the chances of cases going up with the start of school are "highly probable."
"We are possibly dealing with a little bit less immunity among the population, though, because of lower uptake of vaccines and because of lower cases in the winter. So those are all things that weigh into how far or how high these cases may go, and so that remains to be seen," she said.
"Given other uncertainties that we're dealing with right now, people might want to weigh whether or not they're going to have access [to vaccination] in the fall, and whether or not they might be at high risk right now, they might want to get boosted," Prins said.
In May, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said that vaccines would no longer be available for healthy children, calling the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines dangerous. The CDC later walked back Kennedy's statements, issuing recommendations that healthy kids could get a shot if a doctor agreed one was needed.
While interest in vaccines and the virus has waned over the years, COVID remains a concern in public health circles, Prins said, and it still takes a toll. Between May and July, 476 people died in Florida as a result of COVID, according to state data. The vast majority of those who died were 65 years old or older.
Florida case numbers between May and July tripled to 35,000, recent reports show. Orange County had 2,500 cases by July's end, the third-highest total in the state behind Miami-Dade and Broward counties. Wastewater management systems also detected a "high" level of COVID in four different Orange County water reclamation facilities in the last 21 days.
What concerns Prins isn't necessarily just children getting it, but kids getting sick and spreading it to vulnerable family members.
"When kids go to school, they're interacting closely with each other. They may be more likely to get infected. They can bring that infection home to other family members, bring it to other places as well," she said.
The CDC still recommends the vaccine for those over the age of 18, especially those over the age of 65.
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