Once again, a summer wave of COVID-19 is spiking across the country and in Florida, just before kids returned to the classroom.
"We've seen generally two COVID bumps during the year. We usually get our winter bump, which tends to be a little bit larger than what we see as the summer bump, and so far, that's what we're seeing right now," said Cindy Prins, an epidemiologist from the University of Central Florida.
What is different is the level of those with updated COVID vaccines, which is low. State data show that 3,200 kids ages 5 to 11received either a vaccine or a booster this year. Those numbers are on track to be less than years before: 19,600 in 2024, 37,700 in 2023 and 289,000 in 2022.
With students back in the classroom this month, it's hard to predict if the numbers will continue to increase, Prins said.
State data show that a spike occurred after school was in session in 2023, but cases lowered between July and August last year. Prins said while it's hard to say how likely another spike is, the chances of cases going up with the start of school are "highly probable."
"We are possibly dealing with a little bit less immunity among the population, though, because of lower uptake of vaccines and because of lower cases in the winter. So those are all things that weigh into how far or how high these cases may go, and so that remains to be seen," she said.
"Given other uncertainties that we're dealing with right now, people might want to weigh whether or not they're going to have access [to vaccination] in the fall, and whether or not they might be at high risk right now, they might want to get boosted," Prins said.
In May, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said that vaccines would no longer be available for healthy children, calling the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines dangerous. The CDC later walked back Kennedy's statements, issuing recommendations that healthy kids could get a shot if a doctor agreed one was needed.
While interest in the coronavirus and the vaccines has waned since the pandemic, COVID remains a concern in public health circles, Prins said, and it still takes a toll. Between May and July, 476 people died in Florida as a result of COVID, according to state data. The vast majority were 65 or older.
Florida case numbers between May and July tripled to 35,000, recent reports show, with Miami-Dade, Broward, Orange counties with the most in the state. Wastewater management systems also detected a "high" level of COVID in Orange County, St. Petersburg, north Miami-Dade and Tallahassee in the past 21 days.
What concerns Prins isn't necessarily just children getting it, but kids getting sick and spreading it to vulnerable family members.
"When kids go to school, they're interacting closely with each other. They may be more likely to get infected. They can bring that infection home to other family members, bring it to other places as well," she said.
The CDC still recommends the vaccine for those over the age of 18, especially those over the age of 65.
Nationally, the CDC reported cases increasing in 45 states this summer. Wastewater monitoring showed moderate activity across the country, peaking in parts of the West, while test positivity exceeds 11% in some areas. Hospitalizations and deaths remain relatively low compared to previous surges.
The rise has been driven largely by two omicron variant offshoots: NB.1.8.1 (“nimbus”), responsible for about 43% of U.S. cases, and XFG (“stratus”), which makes up about 14%. nimbus is known for its “razor-blade throat” symptom, while stratus often causes hoarseness. Both spread easily but aren’t linked to more severe illness.
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