WLRN has partnered with PolitiFact to fact-check Florida politicians. The Pulitzer Prize-winning team seeks to present the true facts, unaffected by agenda or biases.
Florida is experiencing one of its worst droughts in decades, causing widespread wildfires and evacuation orders in large swaths of the state.
Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis recently offered a possible silver lining.
"They do say, that when you have droughts, that the hurricane seasons tend to be less active," DeSantis said at an April 22 event in Jacksonville. "I don't know if that's true. I don't know if that's an old wives' tale. I don't know if there's data to back it up, but people do say that, and so I guess we shall see what that means for this season coming up."
Over half of Florida is in an "extreme drought," as classified by the U.S. Drought Monitor, and about 22% of the state is in an "exceptional drought," the system's highest level.
Meteorologists and climate experts told PolitiFact that droughts do not directly affect hurricane season, but people sometimes conflate the two as they can occur at the same time under certain conditions.
"There actually isn't any basis for that," Andy Hazleton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami Cooperative Institute for Marine & Atmospheric Studies, said. "Sometimes, drought can be associated with La Niña winters, which we just had, and La Niña tends to favor more hurricanes. We're heading into an El Niño, which will likely mean fewer hurricanes but a wetter winter in Florida."
La Niña is a climate pattern characterized by unusually cold ocean surface temperatures with less wind shear, while El Niño refers to a pattern of unusually warm ocean temperatures with higher wind shear.
Hurricane seasons are driven primarily by the Atlantic basin's sea surface temperatures and wind shear, Hazleton said. (The basin includes the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.) Warm waters act as a fuel source, providing tropical systems with heat energy, and low wind shear acts as a stabilizer, allowing storms to build without being torn apart.
But drought doesn't always lead to fewer hurricanes, experts said. Sometimes La Niña causes drought in the winter then lingers to create an active hurricane season because it keeps high wind shear away.
The 1998 hurricane season is one example of drought and fewer hurricanes not aligning, meteorologists said.
That year, Florida, Texas and Louisiana had record-low rainfall and record-high temperatures, leading to wildfires. The Atlantic hurricane season was particularly active, producing 14 named storms, including 10 hurricanes. Experts noted the drought was initially fueled by a strong El Niño, but as the hurricane season progressed, the transition to La Niña reduced wind shear, allowing for more hurricane activity.
For the coming hurricane season that begins June 1, Florida is heading into a strong El Niño weather pattern, which could mean a quieter season.
"Big El Niño's make a big difference!" Jeff Berardelli, WFLA Tampa Bay's chief meteorologist and climate specialist wrote April 24 on X, explaining that weaker El Ninos have led to major hurricanes. "This #hurricane season may defy the odds, but odds are for a 'relatively' quieter season. Nevertheless, we always say, 'it only takes one,' so be prepared!"
Berardelli said the strongest El Niño episodes dating back to 1972 have correlated with a substantial decrease in hurricane activity — about 40% fewer storms than average.
There's more of a connection between droughts and hurricanes when dry weather occurs in Africa, Hazleton said, because it inhibits thunderstorm clusters that move off the country's coast from forming into Atlantic tropical cyclones. "That can have an impact on the hurricane seasons," he said, "but it's not an easy one-to-one connection."
A persistent drought could bring more problems if a hurricane makes landfall.
Dry conditions can weaken tree roots, making them more prone to falling or breaking in strong winds. Dry soil makes water absorption difficult, which can lead to erosion and a higher risk of flooding.
Our Sources
- Facebook, Gov. DeSantis signs two bills, April 22, 2026
- CBS News, More than 130 wildfires burn across Florida as drought fuels one of the worst fire seasons in decades, April 23, 2026
- Drought.gov, Florida, Accessed April 27, 2026
- Weather.com, Does A Quiet Hurricane Season Mean Bad News For The Southeast Drought?, April 16, 2025
- Gulf Coast News, Fact from fiction: Everglades drought raises questions about hurricane season, May 21, 2025
- American Meteorological Society, MONITORING THE HURRICANE FACTOR -- THE 1998 HURRICANE SEASON, April 1999
- American Meteorological Society, Atlantic Hurricane Season of 1998, Accessed April 27, 2026
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Atmospheric Conditions Affecting the United States during April - June 1998
- X.com, Jeff Berardelli post, April 24, 2026
- Email interview, Andy Hazelton an associate scientist at the University of Miami CIMAS, April 24, 2026
- Email interview, James Franklin, former NOAA weather forecaster, April 27, 2026
Copyright 2026 WLRN
