The flash flooding that swamped cars and homes and led to two deaths in Brevard County this week could be a taste of what's to come over the next few months.
This year's El Niño likely contributed to the storm, and it's only growing stronger. El Niño is a global climate pattern, fueled by warmer waters in the Pacific.
It is expected to send a lot of rain to Florida this fall and winter.
Emily Powell, Florida State Climatologist at Florida State University, said some are calling it a "super" El Niño. That's not a scientific designation, but scientists do anticipate this year's El Niño becoming "very strong," the strongest level used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to track the pattern.
"And it is expected to become a historic event where its strength will exceed the strength of all previous El Niños, at least on record going back to 1950, but likely before that," she said.
Powell said this El Niño still hasn't reached peak strength, but likely will within the next month or so.
What does that mean for Brevard? Likely, more rain, she said. "I mean, do I expect to see this particular type of event again? I can't say, but … there will be parts of Florida that will see a record wet winter, most likely."
Powell said it's tough to pin down exactly where it might happen in Florida, but strong El Niño years tend to include at least one or two heavy rainfall events. That's more than six inches of rain over 24 hours, in one place.
Other factors, in addition to El Niño, will also influence the weather.
Megan Borowski, senior meteorologist for the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network, said El Niño can cause the jet stream to shift farther south.
Normally in the winter, she said, "you'll have storms tracking across the contiguous United States. But with the jet stream farther south, that means those storm tracks are going to be farther south. So I'd expect more cold fronts to come through."
That'll bring heavy rainfall, Borowski said, though it may not be as extreme as the Brevard flooding.
"But one of the things that I'm concerned about -- I don't want people to be, you know, panicking about it -- but is the potential for severe weather outbreaks," she said. "You know, there were the Central Florida tornadoes back in the late '90s. That was an El Niño year."
If there are more winter storms, Borowski added, "those stronger storms, the deeper convective storms, the thunderstorms produce heavier rain rates over a shorter amount of time, and those are the situations that are going to produce flooding. So flooding will be a risk."
What is El Niño?
NOAA describes El Niño as "arguably the most influential climate driver on Earth."
It's one phase in a cycle of warmer and colder water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific near the equator. An El Niño is when the water there is warmer. La Niña is when it turns colder.
El Niño affects weather all around the globe. For example, this past summer, it boosted hurricanes in the Pacific and suppressed them in the Atlantic.
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"A strong El Niño will shift the Pacific jet stream, which helps determine temperature and precipitation patterns over the United States and alters the track of winter storms -- leading to more winter storms over California and the southern United States," according to an explainer on NOAA's website.
"The strength — weak, moderate, strong, or very strong — of an individual El Niño influences the odds of these outcomes."
An advisory from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center says this one has a greater than 83% chance of becoming a "strong-to-very-strong" El Niño.
'A 1,000-year flood'
In Brevard County, Communications Director Don Walker said his community experienced a once-in-1,000-year flood this week. Some areas south of U.S. 192 saw more than 20 inches of rain in less than 24 hours.
Monday's torrential rains led to two deaths in Palm Bay, flash flooding on streets and in homes and, now, rising waters in the St. Johns River. Walker said the county received 2,000 calls from residents. He estimated at least 250 homes were damaged.
In contrast to a hurricane or tropical storm, which also brings flooding, Walker said there's no preparation phase for an event like this one.
"Our job is to make sure that when it does happen our people are safe," he said.
/ via Facebook
At 2:30 a.m. Monday, Walker said, the torrential rain was coming down and the storm system was just sitting over the county. At 3 a.m., emergency managers became aware they had a problem.
And over the next few hours, a multi-agency response got underway. As of Tuesday, Sheriff Wayne Ivey reported more than 200 high-water rescues.
With a hurricane, Walker said, they typically have days to prepare and warn people.
As for what residents can do, he said they can stay "weather aware" and take action when necessary. He said they usually know if their home is in an area that floods. If so, he said they should be ready with a plan to evacuate.
Borowski, the FPREN meteorologist, said residents can plan ahead of possible severe weather outbreaks.
Now is the time, she said, "while we're looking ahead to the potential for these tornadic events … to be identifying where in your house are you going to shelter, where in your office can you shelter."
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