Newly released data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates that the Pacific has reached levels considered to be a ‘Super El Niño,’ but the event still falls short of all-time records.
Temperatures across monitored regions of the Pacific range from 2.5 °C to 4.4 °C above average, levels NOAA forecasters consider to be indicative of a very strong El Niño.
Water temperatures across key parts of the Pacific are expected to increase over the next few weeks, and there is a 60% chance that the El Niño will exceed historical events.
Some of the most notable historical events include the 2015-16 El Niño and the 1997-98 El Niño, which was responsible for significant severe weather outbreaks across the Southeast.
The current El Niño has already had significant ramifications around the globe, ranging from a less active hurricane season across the Atlantic to difficult-to-predict flash flooding episodes across the Southeast.
Earlier this month, parts of northern Georgia received 8 to 10 inches of rain, quickly sending rivers into flood stage, while communities along Florida's Space Coast reported rainfall totals exceeding 2 feet, flooding homes and businesses.
Energy from the subtropical jet stream can provide favorable conditions for enhanced storm development and heavier rainfall amounts, as has already been witnessed.
More weather extremes are possible in the coming months as storm systems become energized across the southern region of the country and the El Niño event continues to strengthen.
Forecasters expect El Niño to last into the spring, with neutral conditions potentially emerging by early summer as water temperatures across the central and eastern Pacific cool.
It remains to be seen whether the event will break all-time records and become the strongest El Niño in history, as some climate models have backed away from predicting historic values.
NOAA indicates there is approximately a 60% chance of exceeding previous El Niño events dating back to 1950.
Events that occurred during 1997-98 and 2015-16 stand out as some of the strongest in history. However, due to changes in technology and observational methods over time, it is difficult to rank events based on water temperatures alone.
Historically, strong El Niño events have been associated with warmer air temperatures and an increased risk of severe weather across the Sunshine State during the winter months, but no two El Niño events are the same.
With few comparable events in history, forecasters have limited historical analogs to refer back to when assessing what the upcoming winter could produce.
Meteorological winter officially begins on Dec. 1 and runs through the end of February, but changes in the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation can significantly influence the timing and intensity of the season's most significant weather.
