USF moves into CFP rankings, with a projected first-round matchup at Georgia

If the season ended today, the University of South Florida would be in the College Football Playoff.

In a major milestone for the program, the Bulls were ranked 24th by the CFP committee, which placed them as the No. 12 seed with a first-round contest at No. 5 Georgia.

It’s the first time the committee ranked USF and projected it to reach the 12-team field.

As of Tuesday, the committee anticipates USF will get one of the automatic bids earmarked for the five highest-ranked conference champions.

That would mean winning the American Conference championship game.

No matter what, the Bulls control their postseason fate.

But to get there, the Bulls (7-2, 4-1) likely would have to close the season with three victories, beginning Saturday against Navy (7-2, 5-1) in Annapolis, Maryland. Both are among five teams with one loss tied for first place in the conference.

USF then faces a pair of struggling American foes: at Alabama-Birmingham and home against Rice.

“A lot riding on these next three,” third-year Bulls coach Alex Golesh said earlier in the day, adding he has confidence his team will remain focused amid the playoff talk.

“I think they know that they're playing meaningful football. Obviously, they know that the game is important, but they all are. For us, it's all about us being the best version of us come Saturday.”

The Bulls, who are coming off a 55-23 victory against Texas-San Antonio, were the only team ranked from a Group of 5, or non-Power, conference.

James Madison not a factor

There had been media conjecture that James Madison (8-1, 6-0), which leads the Sun Belt Conference, could get the G5 bid. That speculation grew when the Associated Press Top 25 media poll ranked the Dukes at No. 24 and Bulls at No. 25 on Sunday.

However, the metrics give South Florida a decided edge for the time being. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, USF rates higher than JMU in all major categories, including schedule strength and game control, a measure of efficiency.

“They've always been part of (the conversation)," committee member Mack Rhoades said of the Bulls. “South Florida is the most consistent of the Group of 5, to date.”

The Bulls are No. 25 in FPI, with a score of 10.5 — meaning they would be expected to beat an average opponent by about 10 points on a neutral field. James Madison, ranked No. 47 with an FPI of 6.4, would be roughly a four-point underdog against USF head-to-head.

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Numbers also back up why the committee views the American as the strongest of the non-power leagues. USF, Tulane, Memphis, North Texas, and Navy have all faced tougher schedules and produced stronger wins than James Madison in the Sun Belt.

USF, for example, has wins over Florida and Boise State; Tulane has an FPI of 58 and a marquee win at Memphis; Memphis sits with an FPI of 46 and a win over USF; North Texas and Navy have lower FPIs but still tougher schedules than JMU.

Only one of James Madison’s wins was against a team with a .500 record or better — Old Dominion. Louisville, which beat JMU, was its only opponent from the Power 5.

No changes among the top five

Ohio State stayed atop the rankings for the second straight week, while Indiana remained at No. 2 despite barely squeaking out a victory last week while No. 3 Texas A&M coasted.

Alabama and Georgia rounded out the same top five as in last week's season-opening rankings. Texas Tech jumped two spots to No. 6, moving one notch ahead of Mississippi, which dropped to No. 7 despite a romp over Citadel in a nonconference game.

The biggest shifts came lower in the rankings, where Miami moved up three spots to No. 15 and vaulted over Georgia Tech to claim the Atlantic Coast Conference's spot in the bracket.

Miami took an expected 38-10 win over Syracuse while Georgia Tech was idle. This looked like a correction of sorts for the Hurricanes, who have a win over Notre Dame and a blowout against USF.

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“Obviously, the head-to-head with Notre Dame comes up,” Rhoades said. “They’re better defensively than they were at the beginning of the year. All those things played into it.”

At No. 8 was Oregon, followed by Notre Dame and Texas.

No. 11 Oklahoma and No. 12 BYU would be the first two at-large teams out due to the automatic spots handed to Miami (ACC) and USF (G5).

USF’s inclusion saved the CFP embarrassment of having an unranked team among the 12 in the projected bracket for the second straight week. Memphis, which lost to Tulane on Friday, was awarded the bid last week despite not being in the CFP’s top 25.

The final bracket comes out Dec. 7, with the playoff beginning Dec. 19 and closing a month later with the CFP title game.

The four highest-ranked teams determined by the committee will be seeded 1-4 and receive a first-round bye. Seeds 5-12 will play each other in the first round.

Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.

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