Colorado State University left its Atlantic hurricane season outlook unchanged Wednesday, calling for one of the least active hurricane seasons in more than a decade.
CSU hurricane experts continue to expect nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane to form during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.
The outlook ranks among the least active in-season predictions since the university began issuing forecasts in 1984.
If the seasonal forecast verifies, it would rank as the second-lowest August outlook issued by CSU for the total number of named storms.
The latest 2026 outlook also remains well below long-term climatological averages.
During an average tropical season, the Atlantic basin typically produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Forecasters continue to highlight a strengthening El Niño as the primary reason for the subdued outlook.
El Niño tends to promote areas of drier air and stronger upper-level winds, both of which are hostile for tropical cyclone development.
CSU said the hostile atmospheric conditions are expected to persist through much of August and September, which are typically the busiest months of the Atlantic hurricane season.
According to NOAA, more than 85% of all Atlantic tropical cyclones develop from August through October.
The effects of the El Niño have already been evident with the early-season activity.
Tropical Storm Arthur remained a named storm for less than a full day, while Tropical Storm Bertha struggled to organize despite moving across exceptionally warm waters in the Gulf.
As a result, the basin has generated very little accumulated cyclone energy, which is commonly referred to as ACE.
ACE is a metric that measures the total energy produced by tropical cyclones over their lifetimes by accounting for both intensity and duration. Long-lived hurricanes produce far more ACE than weaker storms that dissipate quickly.
Through early August, the Atlantic had produced a combined ACE value of just 2.6 units, which is more than 70% below the long-term average for more than two months into the season.
CSU continues to forecast below-normal 2026 Atlantic #hurricane season: 9 named storms (including Arthur and Bertha), 4 hurricanes & 1 major hurricane. Strong #ElNino and associated increase in vertical wind shear the primary factor:https://t.co/MY9tU0e08k pic.twitter.com/rUY2zD5KEk
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) August 5, 2026
While the overall number of named storms has been near average, the lack of long-lasting or intense systems has contributed to the low ACE values.
Despite the subdued seasonal forecast, hurricane experts continue to emphasize that outlooks do not indicate potential impact zones.
A below-average hurricane season can still produce catastrophic events, which is why emergency managers continue to urge residents to be prepared regardless of how many storms are in the forecast.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs through Nov. 30, with activity typically peaking around Sept. 10.
