You might have noticed your morning cup of joe has become more expensive in recent years.
It’s because of a diminishing supply that is projected to get worse. Studies show that climate change could erase more than 60% of suitable coffee land by 2050.
That’s why researchers with the University of Florida Tropical Research and Education Center (UF/TREC) started testing how coffee crops grow in South Florida, a region known for high temperatures and frequent humidity peaks.
Luis Ferrao is the Research Associate Scientist on this project. He said their study centered around some simple questions: “Will it grow?" and "Can we use this as a new crop or as an alternative crop for local growers?”
Their findings show how Florida-grown coffee could one day yield a cultivated, artisanal product, with high profits per square foot.
Testing arabica plants
Researchers started with 48 germinated arabica plants in 2022 to test growth, performance and the beverage-related quality traits. The crops were transplanted into UF/TREC’s Homestead field site in May 2023.
These plants were monitored for three growing years between 2023 and 2025. Fruits were first set in 2024. Since the trees were not mature enough to get representative data at that time, the study's yield quality comes from the 2025 harvest.
They tested four different cultivars, which are plants specifically bred for their desirable traits.
“So every single factor between the plant and the cup is going to have an impact,” Ferrao said.
One of the four is Typica, and, similar to its name, typically produces a modest yield. Typica is historically the most important arabica variety, so researchers also tested three less common cultivars: Fronton, Limani and Obatã.
Results
The findings from the study are encouraging, but uneven.
The average fresh cherry yield, which refers to the total weight of freshly harvested coffee fruit, ranged from about three to six kilograms across all four strands. This shows the need for better management and more research to be conducted.
“The results so far are promising, but they are at the initial stage,” said Ferrao.
ALSO READ: Coffee-driven deforestation is making it harder to grow coffee, watchdog group says
Researchers also measured green coffee, which is the raw, unroasted seeds of coffee fruit. They found Florida-grown coffees produced bean sizes and acidity levels that align with arabica grown elsewhere.
“The coffee scale is a scale that the maximum is 100," Ferrao explained. "Every time that is going to be close to 80, it means that it's a coffee with very good quality.”
The weakest part of production in this study was sugar development in the fruit. With the Brix measurement, used to measure soluble sugars, these coffee cherries from South Florida averaged about ten Brix, compared with the average non-Florida coffee cherries yield of 16 to 20 Brix.
The authors suggest this weakness could come from a variety of localized issues, including warm nights, uneven rainfall, nutrient challenges and rocky alkaline soils.
Aspiring local growers
Researchers worked with a professional coffee consultant to estimate production costs and revenue for two scenarios: small growers who sell raw, unroasted seeds of the coffee fruit at wholesale price and small growers who sell brewed coffee through a farm-to-table approach.
“The most important thing is try to identify growers that are willing to test something new,” Ferrao said. “And they know the value of the research.”
The conclusion from this research shows a prospect to establish coffee as an alternative crop in Florida.
“In general, coffee is considered a crop with moderate to intense agronomical demand,” the study said. “Successful production requires precise nutritional management, regular pruning, effective pest and disease control, and long-term planning.”
Funding
Most of the project’s funding comes from UF/TREC Research SEEDIT Program, but Ferrao also has collaborators supporting this project across the state.
The study’s funding statement shows Duolingo co-founder Severin Hacker, who is also behind the coffee venture Above Ground Coffee.
“There is a lot of potential, but we are still in an early stage,” said Ferrao. “The final objective is combining these three main pillars: research, breeding and production.”
